Lds da sessão da conferência geral vezes forex

Houston Propane Company - Greens Blue Flame Gas Co. Atendendo clientes de propano de Houston desde 1967, a Greens Blue Flame Gas Company está concentrada em fornecer combustível e serviço de propano de qualidade para a área da Grande Houston de maneira segura e eficiente. Nossa equipe experiente dedica-se a fornecer um serviço excepcional de propano para sua casa ou empresa nas comunidades de Waller, Hockley, Magnólia, Tomball, Hempstead, Katy, Cypress e Pinehurst. Greens Blue Flame Gas é uma empresa de propano de propriedade e operada localmente que é tão estabelecida quanto seus proprietários nativos de Houston e sua família de funcionários fiéis. Nós nos orgulhamos de afirmar que somos uma empresa de propano de serviço completo, e estamos ainda mais orgulhosos por servir as comunidades do sudeste do Texas em que vivemos. Propano comercial Cilindro no local Enchimento de touro Frotas de touro Conversões Entrega de propano touro Instalações de tanques touro Lareiras amp Mais Upgrades estilo de vida Outdoor cozinha touro Panelas touro Iluminação touro Serviço de aquecimento de propano Para casa, negócios e indústria - Servindo Magnolia, Tomball, Waller, Hockley, Hempstead, Katy, Cypress e Pinehurst Propano é usado em um número de aplicações, sendo o mais comum um combustível de aquecimento. Enquanto a temporada de aquecimento de Houston é limitada, nossa localização, tamanho e presença industrial trazem uma necessidade inerente de propano em muitas capacidades. Se a demanda por combustível de geradores em standby aumenta devido a um furacão no Golfo ou a demanda fora de época por aquecimento de gás doméstico, o Blue Flame Gas está preparado para atender e exceder as expectativas dos usuários de GLP na área de Houston. Além da instalação do tanque de propano. entrega comercial e residencial em massa, temos recursos exclusivos que nos diferenciam da indústria de propano convencional. Servimos frotas de veículos a gás propano e usuários de empilhadeiras propano e podemos trabalhar com freqüência nos motores que alimentam suas frotas. A conversão do motor de propano está disponível em nosso local no noroeste de Houston, onde podemos converter veículos, geradores e pequenos motores para uso de propano. Nosso escritório principal é também o ponto de fornecimento para nossos bobtails de entrega a granel e abriga a nossa equipe de serviços e operações. Greens Blue Flame Gas Company é baseada em Houston, de propriedade familiar e orientada a serviços. Para um serviço excepcional de propano, chame-nos hoje Site-Map Greens Blue Flame tem o orgulho de apoiar o Wounded Warrior Project. que fornece programas para ajudar os membros do serviço feridos. Cópia dos direitos autorais 2016 Greens Blue Flame Gas Company. Todos os direitos reservados. Política de Privacidade Escritório de Houston: (713) 462-5414 13823 Packard, Houston, TX 77040 Waller Office: (936) 372-5080 28502 FM 2920, Waller, Texas 77484No leilão de blocos em Detroit: quase 9.000 casas e lotes em vários estados de abandono e decadência desde o ocupado proprietário até a concha queimada reivindicada pelos posseiros. Juntas, as propriedades apreendidas por coletores de impostos por atraso e colocadas à venda na semana passada representaram uma área do tamanho do Central Park de Nova York. O total de terrenos vagos em Detroit agora ocupa uma área quase do tamanho de Boston, de acordo com uma estimativa da Detroit Free Press. O leilão de arresto de impostos pelas autoridades de Wayne County também se destacou como uma das tentativas mais ambiciosas de uma única parada para vender propriedades urbanas desde o colapso do mercado imobiliário. Apesar de um lance mínimo de 500, menos de um quinto do terreno de Detroit foi vendido depois de quatro dias. O condado não tinha uma estimativa de quanto foi levantado pelo leilão, uma segunda tentativa de vender propriedades que não conseguiram encontrar compradores para o montante total de impostos atrasados ​​em setembro. O secretário-geral das Nações Unidas, Ban Ki-moon, em um artigo de opinião publicado pelo New York Times, estabeleceu uma série de referências para o sucesso nas próximas negociações climáticas globais, planejadas para serem realizadas em Copenhague. Entre eles, Ki-moon argumentou na edição de terça-feira que uma "estrutura de governança global" deve ser aplicada para garantir que as nações colaborem em como os recursos são implantados e gerenciados. A quantidade de televisão assistida por crianças atingiu uma alta de oito anos, de acordo com dados divulgados ontem pela Nielsen. A análise baseada em números de 2008 relatou o tempo gasto assistindo televisão ao vivo e gravada, bem como filmes e sistemas de jogos. Quando somadas, as crianças de 6 a 11 anos passam mais de 28 horas na frente de uma televisão toda semana. Des Moines, Iowa (AP) - Depois de queimar 1 milhão de poupanças e ver o fim de suas perdas, os produtores de leite Jake e Lori Slegers descobriram que não tinham muita escolha - eles tiveram que matar as vacas. Então, um dia no verão passado, seus filhos etiquetaram todas as 1.571 vacas, colocaram-nas em trailers em sua fazenda ao sul de Fresno, na Califórnia, e as observaram correndo para um matadouro. Lori Slegers disse que seu marido entrou na casa e quebrou. "Ele disse que foi a coisa mais difícil que ele teve que fazer", disse ela. "Felizmente, meus garotos poderiam fazê-lo." A crescente demanda nos países em desenvolvimento aumentou os preços do leite quando os tempos estavam bons, e os produtores de leite expandiram seus rebanhos. Mas a recessão global prejudicou as exportações e deixou os agricultores com muito leite em suas mãos. Os processadores de leite reduziram o preço que estavam dispostos a pagar aos agricultores, em muitos casos abaixo do custo de produzir leite. No ano passado, centenas de agricultores chegaram à mesma conclusão que os Slegers: a única maneira de aumentar os preços é reduzir a oferta, o que significa matar vacas. Em alguns casos, rebanhos inteiros foram transformados em hambúrgueres. Em outros, os agricultores mantiveram seus melhores produtores e enviaram o resto para o abate. O globalista bilionário George Soros disse ao Financial Times durante uma entrevista que a China suplantará os Estados Unidos como líder da nova ordem mundial e que os EUA não devem resistir ao declínio do país à medida que o dólar enfraquece, padrões de vida caem e uma nova moeda global introduzido. Questionado sobre o que Obama deve discutir quando visitar a China no próximo mês, Soros declarou: "Esta seria a hora porque eu acho que você realmente precisa trazer a China para a criação de uma nova ordem mundial, a ordem financeira mundial", acrescentou. o FMI que não contribuiu o suficiente. Eu acho que você precisa de uma nova ordem mundial de que a China tem que ser parte do processo de criá-la e eles têm que comprar, eles têm que possuí-la da mesma forma que os Estados Unidos possuem a ordem atual, disse Soros, acrescentando que o O G20 foi um movimento nessa direção. Soros disse que houve uma fuga de moedas através do conselho, e que é por isso que o preço das commodities, especialmente ouro e petróleo, geralmente subia. Ele também afirmou que um declínio ordenado do dólar era desejável e que todo o sistema precisava ser reconstituído para uma moeda global. Aqui está algo um pouco podre do Estado da Dinamarca. Seu governo divulgou ontem uma pesquisa oficial mostrando que crianças de dois anos correm o risco de confundir produtos químicos em itens cotidianos como roupas impermeáveis, botas de borracha, roupa de cama, alimentos, fraldas, protetor solar e creme hidratante. O relatório de 326 páginas, publicado pela agência de proteção ambiental, é a última peça em um quebra-cabeça cada vez mais alarmante. Está surgindo uma imagem de contaminação química onipresente que reduz a contagem de espermatozóides e feminiza as crianças do sexo masculino em todo o mundo desenvolvido. E as medidas e regulamentos antipoluição estão ficando muito aquém de se familiarizar com isso. Os resultados baseiam-se em estudos anteriores que mostram que as crianças britânicas têm níveis mais altos de produtos químicos para o gênero do que seus pais ou avós. De fato, o WWF (antigo World Wildlife Fund), que encomendou a pesquisa mais antiga, advertiu que os produtos químicos eram tão difundidos que quase nada é pouco, pois os indivíduos podem evitar a contaminação de si mesmos e de suas famílias. PVC, retardadores de chama, ftalatos (amplamente utilizados para amaciar plásticos) e os PCBs, atualmente largamente proibidos, de um milhão e meio de toneladas, que foram utilizados em inúmeros produtos, desde tintas a equipamentos elétricos. Meninos jovens, como os do estudo dinamarquês, poderiam acabar produzindo menos esperma e desenvolvendo um comportamento feminizado. Pesquisas na Universidade Rotterdams Erasmus descobriram que os meninos cujas mães foram expostas a PCBs e dioxinas eram mais propensos a brincar com bonecas e jogos de chá e vestir roupas femininas. E é no útero que os bebês são mais vulneráveis. Um estudo de cordões umbilicais de mães britânicas descobriu que todos continham produtos químicos perigosos. Cientistas da Universidade de Rochester, em Nova York, descobriram que meninos nascidos de mulheres expostas a ftalatos tinham pênis menores e outras feminilidades dos genitais. A contaminação também pode oferecer uma pista para uma mudança misteriosa no sexo dos bebês. Normalmente, nascem 106 rapazes por cada 100 raparigas: pensa-se que seja uma forma natural de compensar o facto de os homens terem maior probabilidade de serem mortos à caça ou em conflito. Mas a proporção de mulheres está aumentando, tanto que cerca de 250 mil bebês que, estatisticamente, deveriam ter sido meninos acabaram sendo meninas no Japão e nos Estados Unidos. Na Grã-Bretanha, a discrepância é de milhares de bebês por ano. Acontece que alguns gigavolts de estímulo financeiro atual até mesmo uma economia do tamanho dos EUA ainda tiram Frankenstein da lacuna, ainda que brevemente. A Fox News, sob o disfarce de uma notícia, dá tempo de publicidade gratuita ao Departamento de Recursos Humanos Militar dos Estados Unidos. (E a Casa Branca de Obama alega que a Fox News não o apóia. Gostosos bobos) Até onde eu posso dizer, este não é um daqueles vídeos de spoof que estão sempre no youtube, embora depois de assistirem, você gostaria que fosse. A decisão de Barack Obama na semana passada de rotular a gripe suína como uma emergência nacional provavelmente aumentará a demanda por uma vacina que já está em falta. No entanto, quando chegam grandes quantidades de vacina, pode ser tarde demais para impedir a maioria das infecções. Em 23 de outubro, Tom Frieden, chefe dos Centros de Controle e Prevenção de Doenças (CDC) em Atlanta, Geórgia, relatou que os EUA receberam 27,4 milhões de doses de vacina. Isso não é suficiente nem para os 42 milhões de pessoas mais vulneráveis ​​do país: mulheres grávidas, pessoas que cuidam de bebês, crianças com menos de quatro anos, profissionais de saúde da linha de frente e menores de 18 anos com problemas médicos. Até agora, os EUA deveriam ter 120 milhões de doses, de acordo com as previsões de julho. Essa estimativa foi reduzida para 45 milhões quando surgiu em agosto que o vírus da vacina estava crescendo pela metade da taxa usual. Agora, até mesmo algumas dessas doses não chegaram. Várias empresas estão agora usando uma cepa de crescimento mais rápido para fabricar vacinas, mas os suprimentos não chegarão por semanas. Você está certo, quanto mais dinheiro estiver disponível, trabalhe seu caminho em direção a 6 a 12 meses de comida. De qualquer maneira você vai usá-lo, não importa o quê, e você certamente não pode viver sem ele. Sou de uma opinião diferente sobre a primeira (e para muitos a única) arma a possuir. Uma Glock usada em bom estado não é tão cara, e se pelo menos nada conseguir um revólver, mas eu sempre insisti em uma arma primeiro, e treinamento suficiente para ser proficiente com ela. É claro que é menos potente, mas você não pode soltar uma espingarda no bolso do casaco ou carregar na cintura e isso faz toda a diferença. Rua, ou em casa, a arma vai cobrir ambos, enquanto a espingarda será apenas uma arma de defesa doméstica, e mesmo assim, você não carrega uma espingarda o tempo todo na casa ou mantê-la acessível. Entrando ou saindo de sua casa, a garagem, a menos que você esconda você vai estar desarmado quando você mais precisa. Outro par de coisas que eu gostaria de mencionar: Uma espingarda, especialmente uma espingarda de ação de bomba, requer muita habilidade para operar, especialmente de perto e contra vários alvos que muitos operadores farão a sua arma quando no CQC, que é o mais comum faixa de defesa. Uma espingarda também precisa ser bem apontada, a pouca distância não há diferença entre as munições de shogun e o projétil sólido, ambos fazem um único furo. Demora vários mais pés e, mesmo assim, o spread não é tanto que você pode se dar ao luxo de não apontar como deveria. Um dos piores inconvenientes com espingardas e combates a curta distância: A) Você precisa das duas mãos para operar B) Requer um movimento mecânico complexo que requer ambas as mãos para cada tiro. Espingardas são legais, mas por todas essas razões, eu sempre recomendo uma arma como primeira e talvez só arma de fogo. Apesar disso, a inadimplência se elevou cada vez mais, com a inadimplência de 30 dias atingindo cerca de 50 de todos os braços de opções pendentes. Se nossos economistas estão certos quanto ao tamanho e à época do aumento da taxa dos fundos federais (aproximadamente 1 por trimestre a partir do segundo trimestre do ano que vem), o impacto sobre os tomadores desses tipos de empréstimos pode ser muito significativo. Aqueles que estão um pouco inadimplentes ou mal conseguiram ver seus pagamentos subirem substancialmente com o impacto possível no final do próximo ano. Quem é Valerie Jarrett O cérebro de Barack e Michelle Obama. O alter ego, a mente se fundem. A cabeça da espinha em uma erupção de espinhas infectando nosso ramo executivo. Foi ela quem trouxe Van Jones e quem sabe quantos outros radicais comunistas. Leia o seu passado, as suas raízes (tentáculos de Chicago) e muito fundo no passado de Obama. Um insider. Na verdade, ela está lá dentro, ela está no centro dela. A mídia está martelando Glenn, atacando-o a cada passo. Ele é a nova causa do objeto da esquerda de Saul Alinsky, que o identificou, polarizou-o e o está atacando em um esforço total para destruí-lo. Para aqueles que não podem ouvi-lo explicar esta manhã, sua transcrição estará disponível em seu site ainda hoje. Por que isso é importante? Porque é um exemplo de alta definição do que Obama e seu exército de radicais fazem. Como um míssil que busca calor, eles atacam para destruir qualquer um que ameace sua missão. Tanto Rush quanto Glenn são alvos principais. É brutal. E o ponto é este: o que eles estão fazendo com Glenn et al, farão ao nosso lado. Estamos em sua mira. Mister Smooth e Cool na Casa Branca é a fachada de um grupo nefasto que não pára em nada para impor seu regime de esperança e mudar em todos nós. E Valerie Jarrett é a geral que está planejando a estratégia e emitindo ordens de marcha. Familiarize-se com esta espinha. A Moodys Investors Service anunciou nesta quinta-feira que começará a adotar ações de rating no 4T09, conforme necessário, para contabilizar as premissas atualizadas sobre as projeções de perdas de títulos hipotecários residenciais (RMBS). As revisões das projeções de perda acontecem na medida em que Moodys espera que os preços das casas continuem a cair para uma baixa no 3T10. O ex-economista-chefe do Banco Central Europeu, Otmar Issing, disse recentemente o que os atuais funcionários não estão dizendo: ninguém pode ter certeza de que temos uma recuperação auto-sustentável. Os desafios que o BCE enfrenta são enormes. "Multiplicadores de dinheiro entraram em colapso em todos os lugares. O que M3 está nos dizendo é que falta confiança. Eu não vejo como estabilizar o M3 em tais circunstâncias. Como observa Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Dados do Banco Central Europeu mostram que a oferta de moeda larga do M3 se contraiu nos últimos seis meses, confundindo as expectativas de que as taxas de juros baixíssimas em breve estimulariam o crescimento monetário. Os empréstimos ao setor privado caíram 0,3% em relação ao ano anterior, a primeira desde o início dos dados em 1983. Os números do M3 incluem uma ampla gama de contas bancárias. A imagem é ainda mais marcante na América, onde o M3 encolheu a uma taxa anual de 6,5% nos últimos três meses, um ritmo de contração não visto desde a década de 1930. Os empréstimos bancários dos EUA despencaram desde maio. O motor da política externa americana tem sido alimentado não por uma devoção a qualquer tipo de moralidade, mas pela necessidade de servir a outros imperativos, que podem ser resumidos da seguinte maneira: tornar o mundo seguro para as corporações americanas melhorar as demonstrações financeiras dos contratantes da defesa. em casa, que contribuíram generosamente para os membros do congresso, impedindo o surgimento de qualquer sociedade que pudesse servir como um exemplo bem-sucedido de uma alternativa ao modelo capitalista, estendendo a hegemonia política e econômica sobre uma área tão ampla quanto possível, como convém a um "poder supremo". Isso em nome da luta contra uma suposta cruzada moral contra o que os guerreiros frios se convenceram, e o povo americano, era a existência de uma Mal Conspiração Comunista Internacional, que de fato nunca existiu, mal ou não. Os Estados Unidos realizaram intervenções extremamente sérias em mais de 70 nações neste período. Apesar de as reivindicações iniciais de desemprego estarem em tendência de baixa em uma base nacional desde março, estados diferentes tiveram taxas diferentes de queda. Além do relatório nacional semanal sobre os pedidos iniciais de auxílio-desemprego, o Departamento do Trabalho também informa os dados das solicitações em cada estado. Embora esses números não sejam ajustados sazonalmente, eles podem ajudar a entender quais áreas do país estão se recuperando (ou se estabilizando) mais rapidamente. No mapa e nas tabelas abaixo, destacamos os dez estados dos EUA que observaram a maior e menor porcentagem de declínio nos pedidos iniciais de auxílio-desemprego desde o pico de sua recessão. Olhando para o gráfico mostra algumas tendências interessantes. Em termos de estados com as maiores reduções em pedidos de auxílio-desemprego, todos, exceto dois deles (Dakota do Norte e Kansas) estão na metade leste dos Estados Unidos, incluindo Michingan, que viu o maior declínio de qualquer estado no sindicato (84 ). Concedido, o estado teve uma das taxas de desemprego mais altas, assim há muito espaço para melhoria. O sudeste também viu uma melhora notável. Quatro dos dez estados com a maior redução nas reivindicações iniciais são o cluster de Kentucky, Tennessee, Carolina do Norte e Carolina do Sul. Os estados com as menores diminuições nas reivindicações iniciais na maior parte também compartilham algumas características comuns. Primeiro de tudo, assim como a maioria dos estados com as maiores diminuições estão na metade oriental do país, todos menos três dos dez estados com as menores diminuições (Arkansas, Flórida e Maryland) estão na metade ocidental dos Estados Unidos. Estados. Outro tema compartilhado pela maioria desses estados é que eles são todos fortemente dependentes do turismo. Assim, parece que os americanos não confiam muito em suas perspectivas de gastar dinheiro em férias. Oh homem, estou feliz por tirar isso do meu peito Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater Infinitas Mas Jason, você não ouviu? a recessão terminou oficialmente hoje quando os números do PIB do 3º trimestre chegaram a 20% acima do esperado. Estava fora da floresta. qualquer perigo de um colapso total do sistema financeiro foi evitado. obrigado Bush, Paulson, Bernanke, Geithner e Obama. Os resgates funcionaram. coisa boa também porque eu estava muito bem lá por um tempo. "A verdade está na história, mas a história não é a verdade." - Nicols Gmez Dvila Isso ocorre por meio do FT: a Arábia Saudita decidiu na quarta-feira abandonar o contrato de petróleo West Texas Intermediate como referência para avaliar seu petróleo, causando um sério golpe para o New York Mercantile Exchange. A decisão do maior exportador de petróleo do mundo poderia encorajar outros produtores a abandonar o benchmark e ameaçar o domínio do contrato de futuros de petróleo mais comercializado do mundo. É o principal contrato negociado na Nymex. Antes que alguém tente girar isso como um movimento anti-dólar, você deve ler o que mais o artigo da FT diz: em janeiro, WTI, que geralmente é negociado com um prêmio de 1-2 barril para Brent, caiu drasticamente, deixando-o em um desconto de quase 12 a lacuna recorde. Esse deslocamento no mercado continuou até o verão. A partir de janeiro, a Arábia Saudita vai basear o preço do petróleo para seus clientes nos EUA em um novo índice desenvolvido pela Argus, a empresa londrina de precificação de petróleo. O Argus Sour Crude Index irá acompanhar o preço no mercado físico de uma cesta de petróleo bruto da Costa do Golfo dos EUA, incluindo Mars, Poseidon e Southern Green Canyon. O objetivo desse movimento não é minar o dólar, mas sim sair do contrato do WTI, onde os preços foram inflados artificialmente devido à escassez de armazenamento em Cushing. Um amigo familiarizado com este mercado também indicou que os apostadores de grandes bancos ativos neste mercado vão gostar deste movimento, bem como os ajuda a fugir dos limites de posição e regulação do CFTC. Ele diz: Na verdade, a falta de transparência e regulamentação sobre o Dubai Merc foi uma das razões pelas quais você teve especulação tão bem sucedida no mercado de petróleo durante a primavera de 2008. Eu vejo um aumento nos preços do petróleo como um risco para qualquer sustentado recuperação. Qualquer pessoa com mais insights sobre por que os sauditas fizeram esse movimento, comentem. Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Fidelis, Frater Infinitas Insiders lutando para sair esta manhã - NOVA YORK (Reuters) - Um grande afluxo de pedidos impediu que a Bolsa de Nova York divulgasse cotações logo após o início das negociações na sexta-feira. A NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX - News Paris: NYX. PA - News), a controladora da bolsa, disse que os atrasos ocorreram após um influxo desordenado de pedidos recebidos na sexta-feira. Mais tarde na sessão, a empresa teve que transferir temporariamente o processamento de cotações para um sistema de backup. Os atrasos nas cotações da bolsa fizeram com que alguns tickers fossem bloqueados, mas um porta-voz da NYSE disse que as negociações ainda estão em andamento. A NYSEs Ray Pellecchia também disse à Reuters que a causa do problema ainda estava sob investigação. A interrupção na NYSE e na negociação de títulos da NYSE Amex foi resolvida por volta do meio-dia. Os traders que se recusaram a ser identificados disseram que a interrupção foi causada em parte pela liquidação antecipada, bem como pela tecnologia da NYSE. Interessante saber como a tecnologia quotNYSE causa o problema. Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis e Frater Infinitas Jason escreveram: Insiders lutando para sair esta manhã - NOVA YORK (Reuters) - Um enorme afluxo de pedidos impediu que a Bolsa de Nova York divulgasse cotações logo após o início das negociações na sexta-feira. . A NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX - News Paris: NYX. PA - News), a controladora da bolsa, disse que os atrasos ocorreram após um influxo desordenado de pedidos recebidos na sexta-feira. Mais tarde na sessão, a empresa teve que transferir temporariamente o processamento de cotações para um sistema de backup. Os atrasos nas cotações da bolsa fizeram com que alguns tickers fossem bloqueados, mas um porta-voz da NYSE disse que as negociações ainda estão em andamento. A NYSEs Ray Pellecchia também disse à Reuters que a causa do problema ainda estava sob investigação. A interrupção na NYSE e na negociação de títulos da NYSE Amex foi resolvida por volta do meio-dia. Os traders que se recusaram a ser identificados disseram que a interrupção foi causada em parte pela liquidação antecipada, bem como pela tecnologia da NYSE. Interessante saber como a tecnologia quotNYSE causa o problema. Eu comparo Wall Street à Torre de Babel. quando finalmente desmorona por causa do mal, olhe para fora. "A verdade está na história, mas a história não é a verdade." - Nicols Gmez Dvila Vocês não ouvem A economia é tão boa que não haverá um aumento do custo de vida para os da Previdência Social este ano porque houve um declínio na inflação . Obviamente, essas pessoas não compram comida, gasolina ou roupas Jason, isso é uma lista de coisas do mundo. Estou especialmente alarmada com o quão descarada e aberta eles falam sobre "A Nova Ordem Mundial" e "Governança Global". Isso assusta as calças de mim. Swan Song escreveu: Vocês não ouviram? A economia é tão boa que não haverá um aumento do custo de vida para aqueles que estão na Previdência Social este ano porque houve um declínio na inflação. Obviamente, essas pessoas não compram comida, gasolina ou roupas Jason, isso é uma lista de coisas do mundo. Estou especialmente alarmada com o quão descarada e aberta eles falam sobre "A Nova Ordem Mundial" e "Governança Global". Isso assusta as calças de mim Mantenha suas calças Há muito mais por vir. Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Fidelis Semper, Frater Infinitas O mercado imobiliário é tão ruim que você não pode nem dar lares nos dias de hoje. Funcionários do subúrbio de Barrington colocaram três casas para vender por apenas um dólar por peça - um dólar - e não conseguiram um único concorrente. Desde março, tem havido uma alta maciça em todos os tipos de ativos de risco, petróleo, energia e commodities, um estreitamento de spreads de crédito de alto rendimento e alto grau, e um aumento ainda maior nas classes de ativos de mercados emergentes (suas ações, títulos e moedas). Ao mesmo tempo, o dólar enfraqueceu acentuadamente. enquanto os rendimentos dos títulos do governo aumentaram suavemente, mas permaneceram baixos e estáveis. Então, o que está por trás dessa enorme recuperação? Certamente, ela foi ajudada por uma onda de liquidez vinda de taxas de juros próximas de zero e de flexibilização quantitativa. Mas um fator mais importante que alimenta essa bolha de ativos é a fraqueza do dólar americano, impulsionada pela mãe de todos os carry trades. O dólar dos EUA tornou-se a principal moeda de financiamento de carry trades, já que o Fed manteve as taxas de juros em espera e espera-se que o faça por um longo tempo. Os investidores que estão encurtando o dólar para comprar em uma base altamente alavancada ativos de maior rendimento e outros ativos globais não estão apenas tomando emprestado a taxas de juros zero em termos de dólar que estão tomando emprestados a taxas de juros muito baixas tão baixas quanto 10 ou 20 por cento anualizado como a queda do dólar dos EUA leva a ganhos de capital maciço em posições curtas do dólar. Vamos resumir: os traders estão tomando empréstimos a taxas negativas de 20% para investir em uma base altamente alavancada em uma massa de ativos globais de risco que estão subindo de preço devido ao excesso de liquidez e a um carry trade massivo. Cada investidor que joga este jogo arriscado parece um gênio, mesmo que eles estejam apenas montando uma enorme bolha financiada por um grande custo negativo de empréstimos, já que os retornos totais estão na faixa de 50 a 70% desde março. O senso dos povos sobre o valor em risco (VAR) de seus portfólios agregados deveria, ao contrário, ter aumentado devido a uma crescente correlação dos riscos entre diferentes classes de ativos, todos impulsionados por essa política monetária comum e o carry trade. Com efeito, tornou-se um grande comércio comum que você encurta o dólar para comprar qualquer ativo de risco global. No entanto, ao mesmo tempo, o risco percebido das classes de ativos individuais está declinando, pois a volatilidade é diminuída devido à política dos Feds de comprar tudo o que estiver à vista para testemunhar sua proposta de compra de títulos do tesouro hipotecário de 1.800 bilhões (1.000 bilhões de dólares). (títulos garantidos por uma empresa patrocinada pelo governo, como a Fannie Mae) e dívida da agência. Ao efetivamente reduzir a volatilidade das classes de ativos individuais, fazendo com que eles se comportem da mesma maneira, agora há pouca diversificação entre os mercados, o VAR novamente parece baixo. Portanto, o efeito combinado da política do Fed de taxa zero de fundos federais, afrouxamento quantitativo e compra massiva de instrumentos de dívida de longo prazo aparentemente está tornando o mundo seguro para a mãe de todas as carry trades e mãe de todas as bolhas de ativos globais altamente alavancadas . Enquanto essa política alimenta a bolha de ativos global, ela também está alimentando uma nova bolha de ativos nos EUA. Dinheiro fácil, afrouxamento quantitativo, afrouxamento do crédito e entrada massiva de capital nos Estados Unidos por meio de uma acumulação de reservas de moeda estrangeira por parte dos bancos centrais estrangeiros tornam os déficits fiscais dos EUA mais fáceis de financiar e alimentam a bolha de capital e crédito dos EUA. Finalmente, um dólar fraco é bom para as ações dos EUA, pois pode levar a um maior crescimento e faz com que os lucros em moeda estrangeira das corporações americanas no exterior aumentem em termos de dólar. A política imprudente dos EUA que alimenta essas transações está forçando outros países a seguir sua política monetária fácil. Taxas de política próximas a zero e flexibilização quantitativa já estavam em vigor no Reino Unido, na zona do euro, no Japão, na Suécia e em outras economias avançadas, mas a fraqueza do dólar está piorando esse afrouxamento monetário global. Os bancos centrais da Ásia e da América Latina estão preocupados com a fraqueza do dólar e estão intervindo agressivamente para impedir a valorização excessiva da moeda. Isso está mantendo as taxas de curto prazo abaixo do desejável. Os bancos centrais também podem ser forçados a baixar as taxas de juros por meio de operações domésticas de mercado aberto. Alguns bancos centrais, preocupados com o hot money que impulsiona suas moedas, como no Brasil, estão impondo controles sobre as entradas de capital. De qualquer forma, a bolha do carry trade irá piorar: se não houver uma intervenção forex e as moedas estrangeiras se valorizarem, o custo de empréstimo negativo do carry trade se torna mais negativo. Se a intervenção ou as operações de mercado aberto controlam a valorização da moeda, o consequente afrouxamento monetário interno alimenta uma bolha de ativos nessas economias. Assim, a bolha perfeitamente correlacionada em todas as classes de ativos globais fica maior a cada dia. Mas um dia essa bolha explodirá, levando ao maior colapso dos ativos coordenados: se os fatores levarem o dólar a se inverter e subitamente se valorizar como foi visto nas reversões anteriores, como o carry trade financiado pelo iene, o carry trade alavancado terá para ser fechado de repente como os investidores cobrem seus shorts do dólar. Uma debandada ocorrerá à medida que o fechamento de posições de ativos alavancados de risco em todas as classes de ativos financiadas por empréstimos em dólar desencadeia um colapso coordenado de todos os ativos de risco, commodities, classes de ativos de mercados emergentes e instrumentos de crédito. Por que esses negócios serão desvendados Em primeiro lugar, o dólar não pode cair a zero e em algum momento estabilizará quando isso acontecer, o custo dos empréstimos em dólares subitamente se tornará zero, e não altamente negativo, e o risco de uma reversão dos movimentos do dólar induzir muitos a cobrir seus shorts. Em segundo lugar, o Fed não pode suprimir a volatilidade para sempre, e seu plano de compra de 1,8 trilhão de dólares vai acabar na próxima primavera. Terceiro, se o crescimento dos EUA surpreender no terceiro trimestre e no quarto, os mercados podem começar a esperar que um aperto do Fed chegue mais cedo, não depois. Quarto, poderia haver uma fuga do risco causada pelo medo de uma recessão dupla ou riscos geopolíticos, como um confronto militar entre os EUA / Israel e o Irã. Como em 2008, quando esse aumento na aversão ao risco foi associado a uma acentuada valorização do dólar, com os investidores buscando a segurança dos títulos do Tesouro dos EUA, essa nova aversão ao risco desencadearia uma alta do dólar em uma época em que ser fechado. Esse desmoronamento pode não ocorrer por algum tempo, já que dinheiro fácil e liquidez global excessiva podem elevar os preços dos ativos por um tempo. Mas quanto maior e maior o carry trades e maior a bolha de ativos, maior será o consequente crash da bolha de ativos. O Fed e outros formuladores de políticas parecem inconscientes da bolha monstruosa que estão criando. Quanto mais tempo permanecerem cegos, mais duros serão os mercados. Aqui está outra grande entrevista de Nouriel Roubini. Ele apareceu na CNBC nesta manhã explicando como o carry trade do dólar ajudou a inflar os mercados de ações para commodities para avaliações borbulhantes. O famoso economista pessimista disse à CNBC: "Agora estamos na mãe de todos os carry trades", ressaltando que os dólares baratos estão levando os preços dos ativos a um patamar mais alto. O perigo, disse ele, é quando esse comércio se reverte e o dólar inevitavelmente se eleva. Nesse ponto, Roubini avisou. poderia haver colisão no mercado de cotas em todo o mundo. Aqui estão os detalhes alegres. Dólar para cima, baixo. É tão simples quanto isso. Veja o artigo da revista Rolling Stone Matt Taibbi para mais sobre a dinâmica do mercado (shorts nus) - rollingstone / politics / st. edswindle Assim como um banco falharia se todos os seus depositantes tentassem obter dinheiro ao mesmo tempo. O CIT não conseguiria sobreviver se muitos de seus clientes fechassem suas contas. Alguns já vêm puxando seus negócios nos últimos meses, pois o CIT lutou pela sobrevivência, mas ainda é cedo demais para saber quantos permanecerão. O CIT é um dos maiores financiadores do país para pequenas e médias empresas, fornecendo financiamento para uma grande variedade de empresas, incluindo varejistas, empresas de energia, um pequeno estúdio de cinema e operadores das lojas Dunkin Donuts. Às vezes as pessoas esquecem que simples fato Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Fidelis Semper, Frater Infinitas Outro pequeno detalhe para acrescentar a isso é o fato de que mais 9 bancos falharam no fim de semana (ou como eles agora chamam - falência bancária sexta-feira, para minimizar o impacto das falhas em relação ao mercado de ações, anunciando as falhas no fim de semana). Foi muito engraçado esta manhã. a única notícia antes da abertura dos mercados foi que 9 bancos faliram no fim de semana e o Dow subiu 150 pontos. Sua tornou-se tão flagrante agora o que está acontecendo que apenas um idiota consideraria Wall Street legítimo. O que também é interessante sobre os fracassos é que eles não incluem agências do mesmo banco que foram apreendidas e tomadas pelo FDIC. Por exemplo, você poderia ter 20 agências de um banco (como o banco Zions) e se o banco de Zions falhasse, o relatório do governo é que um banco falhou, apesar de 20 bancos individuais (ou agências) terem sido afetados. Eles manipulam os números de uma forma semelhante no que diz respeito ao desemprego, inflação e praticamente todo o resto. "A verdade está na história, mas a história não é a verdade." - Nicols Gmez Dvila Outras referências, mas são pagas por visualização. O Tesouro dos EUA anunciou hoje uma estimativa preliminar das necessidades de financiamento nos trimestres de 2009 e 1º trimestre de 2010. The October-December borrowing need has been revised lower to 276 billion from the 485 billion announced in July 2009. The primary reason for the decline, aside from the need to stay below the 12.1 trillion debt ceiling which would have already been breached had this number been in line with prior expectations, is due to the 185 billion refunded from the Supplementary Financing Program announced earlier, which as of October 28 has been completed. Yet, like everything else with the current administration, current peace of mind comes at a magnified future cost: the US Treasury now expected to issue 478 billion in Treasurys in Q1, and coupled with a net cash decline of 40 billion from Q4, implies that in Q1 2010 over half a trillion in debt will be issued net, if not more. The recent bear rally has driven most of the solvent, semi-solvent and absolutely insolvent CRE stocks up, quite a few approaching 100, while their macro outlook has deteriorated significantly, along with their fundamentals. Quite a few have actually acted in cahoots with the banks that held their increasingly worthless debt, having issued secondary offerings basically converting the bank holdings of debt that didnt have an icicles chance in the hottest portion of Hell of getting repaid, into worthless toilet paper, heretofore marketed as stock certificates. They have also begun offering this used toilet paper as dividends. If this isnt the sector screaming for me to come back and short it, I dont know what is. In this Bloomberg clip, commerce secretary Gary Locke says that quotif there is to be another stimulus -- and thats being hotly discussed and very seriously considered within the administration as well as members of Congress -- it needs to be very targeted, very specific and we need to be very mindful of the deficit as well. In other words, with unemployment not improving after the first 787 billion was spent, with GDP improvements having peaked, and since at this point nothing matters since America will never be able to realistically service its debt, with mid-term elections coming up, and Obamas rating plummeting even despite an orchestrated 50 rally, it is a matter of months, if not days, before the President unveils another multi-trillion Treasury sinkhole. And since no horrible policy decision can go unused, the next stimulus is likely to be promptly followed by the Chairman announcing the next iteration of Quantitative Easing. In his latest missive, Albert Edwards, among other things, touches on two of the most critical drivers in the current economic climate: deflation and Treasury supply. His observations lead him to conclude nothing good about the follow-through for the current bear market, liquidity driven, short squeeze induced equity rally. However, more relevantly than touching merely on what is a unprecedentedly overpriced equity market, Albert will likely spark some newly-heated discussions between inflationists and deflationists (which in this economy where the only fundamental analysis deals with the Feds balance sheet and Cash Flow statement, which until HR 1207 is instituted, readers have to mostly guess at, is really all that matters). The Fed now has 15 billion in purchasing power left under the Treasury component of QE. Of the 1,250 billion in MBS projected to be bought by the end of the year, the Fed was already purchased 840 billion, leaving 410 billion in budgeted purchases over the next three and a half months: about 125 billion per month. And here is what a recoveryless, and soon to be crashful recovery looks like: The resultant delinquency ratio for September 2009 of 3.94 (up from the 3.347 reported one month prior) is now over seven times the 0.54 reported one-year prior in September 2008 and almost 14 times the Realpoint recorded low point of 0.283 from June 2007. The increase in both delinquent unpaid balance and ratio over this time horizon reflects a steady increase from historic lows in mid-2007. In principle, we couldnt agree more with Dr. Doom. In practice, we think Roubini is only half way there, implying that the swift reversal will be even uglier (and swifter) than even Nouriel thinks possible. By that, we refer to our analysis of BIS estimates of dollar-denominated duration funding mismatches. Observant readers will recall that this number was estimated as large as 6.5 trillion shortly before Lehman. While the number (hopefully) has declined in the past year, the primary reason why the Fed took on over half a trillion in FX liquidity swaps with foreign banks had precisely to do with providing a near-term dollar-based funding source. And this was the point we made in our previous piece: while it is true that on one hand the global economic system is now faced with a potential massive dollar short squeeze, the fundamental maturity mismatch problems are still endemic to the international system. Simply said, dollar unwind risks are based on both a short squeeze as well as another unsecured/FX swap market implosion, most likely in some form of vicious circle. Curiously, none other than the NY Fed came out with a research piece, subsequent to Zero Hedge publishing its thoughts, entitled quotThe Global Financial Crisis and Offshore Dollar Marketsquot in which it essentially recapped our salient points regarding the inception (but not the consequences) of a predominantly dollar-denominated asset holding philosophy. Last edited by Anonymous on Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:04 am, edited 1 time in total. Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater Infinitas This one deserves its own post. When Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, traditional money repositories, previously considered safe, were all promptly abandoned by investors unsure if they will have access to capital the next day. As a result, money markets, repos, even savings and deposit accounts were plundered in what has been the closest equivalent of a 21st century run on the bank. The only safe venue became US Treasury Bills, as almost overnight nearly half a trillion in very near maturities were invested in the US as the last perceived safe repository of investor capital. See link for charts. The rush for near-term safety ended up creating a historic precedent of negative yields on near-term Bills: investors were willing to pay the government to hold their money for them. So where do we stand a year later One would expect that as the financial situation improved, and credit was unlocked, that investors would abandon the safety of low-yielding Bills and pursue risk. Ironically, not only has this not happened, but in the 12 months since October 2008, over half a trillion more, 560 billion to be exact, has been parked in T-Bills. Looking at the entire treasury curve, over 40 of the 7 trillion in marketable treasury securities, matures within one year, a dramatic increase from the roughly 30 a year prior. The chart of the current T-Bill maturity schedule is presented below: And here is how a Year-over-Year comparison from October 2008 to October 2009 and one year forward maturity data looks. As noted, the overall increase in near-term maturities has increased by a staggering 562 billion, or 25 from the 2.3 trillion in near-term (one year) maturities in 2008. Practically every monthly period has seen an increase in T-Bill allocation by investors. This is a troubling trend. But before we get into the details of what potential problems this may bring to the US, as the funding mismatch accelerates, this is how the entire curve of marketable securities looked like as of the most recent available data. As noted previously, over 40 of the entire 7 trillion in marketable securities matures essentially within one year. The concern is that even as the US debt, which as of Friday was at 11,868,457,477,911.94, and looks like it will hit the 12.104 trillion limit within a few weeks, continues to skyrocket, the interest expense paid on holdings will continue creeping ever higher. Keep in mind, at September 30, the average interest rate on Bills was a historically low 0.347, and Notes yielded a QE-facilitated 3.043. With the Fed out, can China and US retail investors support this record low interest at a time when UST supply keeps coming and coming And that assumes that the roll of the T-Bills will continue to occur without a hitch, which at a time when the UST QE is over, may be a rather bold assumption. Yet one thing is clear: so far the proverbial quotmoney on the sidelinesquot has only found USTs and specifically low-yielding Bills to be attractive. Risky assets have been shunned. So at a time when the equity rally has already had a counterintuitive 60 run up, courtesy of a few HFT platforms, some hedge funds and the Goldman prop trading team, just what is it about the market fundamentals (or the economy) for that matter, that will force investors to leave the security of Bills and go into a massively overbought equity market (And we say counterintuitive because never before have investors bought risky and safe assets with the same zeal at precisely the same time). The answer is unknown, although with a 9 trillion deficit in dire need of funding over the next decade, it is safe to say that investors in Treasurys will not have problems finding opportunities to park their money. Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater Infinitas MISH write-up on money. At any point in time, however, when demand for money increases (people want to hold it as opposed to buy goods and services) prices of goods and services decline decline. This can happen even as money supply increases. It is happening now. Money vs. Credit In a gold based economy, a measure of money would be a measure of the supply of gold. However, in a fractional Fractional Reserve system (even one based on gold) more credit can be extended (more gold lent out via paper receipts supposedly quotas good as goldquot) than their is actual gold. Clearly this is fraudulent. Even in a fiat system where money is amazingly backed by nothing, more credit can be extended than there is actual fiat currency. This is fraudulent as well, and sooner or later a credit crisis erupts caused by inability to pay back with interest what has been lent. Indeed the entire banking system in insolvent right now. It is physically impossible to pay back all the credit that has been extended on the fiat base money supply that actually exists. Clearly we can see from the above charts there is a huge difference between base money supply and M2. There is an even larger difference between base money supply and M3. Do any of the above measures represent quotmoneyquot Money AMS and True Money Supply Hoping to clarify the distinction between money and credit, Austrian economic followers have two additional measures, one called True Money Supply, the other Money AMS (Austrian Money Supply). I have a monetary measure called M Prime (M) but that is a representation (as best as I can put together) of Money AMS. At the heart of the entire debate is the question quotHow Does One Distinguish Credit Transactions From Moneyquot Please consider Money, Credit, Inflation and Deflation by Steve Saville. Sweeps are automated programs that quotsweepquot funds from one type of account into another type of account automatically. In this case we are talking about programs that allow banks to quotsweepquot funds from checking accounts to other types of accounts such as savings accounts that allow money to be lent out. There are no reserve requirements on savings accounts. Sweeps were initiated by Greenspan in 1994. Take a look at the following chart to see what has happened since then. The Fed hides sweeps data in an obscure online publication called swdata. Note that sweeps data is seldom less than two months old. I have no idea why it takes the Fed 2-3 months to post this data. I suppose we should be grateful they publish it at all. For the missing months, we simply extrapolate forward. A quick look shows that nearly 800 billion dollars that should be in checking accounts is missing in action. Money, supposedly available on demand, is just not there. Given there are no reserves on savings accounts, as much as 4.5 trillion people think is in their savings accounts is not there either. Moreover, the duration mismatch on savings accounts, sweeps, and likely even CDs is massive. If even 20 of the people tried to get their money out the system would freeze up. The banking system is clearly insolvent. Such is the folly of fractional reserve lending. For a further discussion of money, derivatives, and invisible debt, and the monetary crisis we are facing, please see Janet Tavakoli on Financial Meth Labs. Except for the monetary stimulus of the Fed fighting the last two recessions, demand deposits have generally been in decline since 1994. It is the only monetary component in a sustained (albeit artificial) downtrend. The point being, in measuring demand deposits, one must add in sweeps. It has been a long time since I have updated M Prime, but thanks to my friend quotTCquot I have a couple of new charts. Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater Infinitas For the gold bugs. Gold has hit an all-time high of USD 1,079.20/oz this afternoon after it was revealed that Indias central bank had bought 200 MT of the stuff from the IMF in deal worth USD6.7 billion. The IMF recently announced that it would like to sell a little over 400 MT from its holdings to help with its aid programmes to poor countries. India was the first to step forward with the cash, although China and Russia had been favourites. The move is seen supporting gold prices further, as it appears to confirm that central banks are comfortable entering the market to hold gold at over USD 1,000/oz. It may also indicate that they feel that gold is a better asset than the US dollar reserves that they will be using to pay for it. Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater Infinitas NEW YORK Inside the thick Goldman Sachs investment circular were the details of a secret, 2 billion deal channeled through a Caribbean tax haven. The Sept. 26, 2006, document offered sophisticated U. S. and European investors an opportunity to buy into a pool of supposedly high-grade bonds backed by residential, commercial and student loans. The transaction was registered through a shell company in the Cayman Islands. Few of the potential investors knew it, but the ratings of many of the mortgage securities hid their true risks and, in some cases, Goldmans descriptions exaggerated their quality. The Cayman offering one of perhaps dozens made through the British territory occurred as Goldman began to ditch the subprime mortgage business before the U. S. housing market collapsed under an avalanche of homeowner defaults. In all, Goldman sold more than 57 billion in risky mortgage-backed securities during a 14-month period in 2006 and 2007, including nearly 39 billion issued from mortgages it purchased. Meanwhile, the firm peddled billions of dollars in complex deals, many of them tied to subprime mortgages, in the Caymans and other offshore locations. Many of those securities later soured, but the sales allowed Goldman to become the only major U. S. investment bank to escape the brunt of the subprime meltdown. It could be yet another opportunity for Goldman Sachs to come out a winner from the financial crisis that it helped create, but the Treasury Department appears poised to squash it. Treasury officials confirmed on Monday that Goldman Sachs, which reported record quarterly profits last month, has proposed buying or at least borrowing tens of millions of dollars worth of unused tax credits from Fannie Mae, the mortgage finance company that is now owned by the government, The New York Timess Edmund L. Andrews and Graham Bowley reported. Fannie Mae cannot benefit from the tax credits, which are tied to investments in low-income housing, because it has lost so much money that it may not owe federal taxes for years to come. The proposal, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, has been pitched by the Wall Street firm as a win-win idea. Fannie Mae would get cash, which it might be able to pump into more low-income housing investment, while Goldman Sachs and perhaps a syndicate of investors would be able to reduce their taxes. Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. recipient of a 182.3 billion U. S. government bailout, will release third-quarter results this week without a conference call for analysts and investors. AIG will skip, for the second straight quarter, the audio presentation and question-and-answer session that accompanied earnings in the past, Christina Pretto, a spokeswoman for the New York-based insurer, said yesterday. AIG, led by Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche, will post results before the start of New York trading on Nov. 6, along with a regulatory filing and financial supplement. I dont think they want to answer any questions, said Representative Brad Sherman, a California Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee. This company has shown itself remarkably unsuccessful in capitalism and remarkably successful in socialism. They are not obligated to do anything they can get away with not doing. Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc will receive 31.3 billion pounds (51 billion) in a second bailout from the U. K. taxpayer as the two banks agreed to cap bonuses. The Treasury will inject 25.5 billion pounds of capital into RBS, for a total of 45.5 billion pounds, making it the costliest bailout of any bank worldwide. The government will fund about a quarter of Lloydss 21 billion-pound fundraising. Both banks said they wont pay cash bonuses to workers earning more than 39,000 pounds this year. The rescue will bring the U. K. closer to full ownership of RBS, while Lloyds will escape government control. Theyve got another neat interactive graphic over at the Wall Street Journal (hat tip Patrick) where you can see the timing, size, and location of all 140 banks that have failed since 2008 along with a handy sortable table with important statistics. For maximum enjoyment, click on the first link above and then hit the Play button. quotIn case you failed to catch it in our previous articles this year, we thought wed state it outright for our readers this month: the United States Government is on a trajectory to default on their obligations. In its current financial condition, it will not be able to fund its forecasted budget deficits and unfunded Social Security and Medicare promises on top of its current debt obligations. This isnt official yet, and we dont know when the market will react to it, but there is no longer any doubt about the extent of their trajectory. There simply isnt enough taxing power, value creation or outside capital willing to support its egregious spending. The projected US deficit from 2009 to 2019 is now slated to be almost 9 trillion dollars. How on earth does anyone expect them to raise this capital As we stated in a previous article, in order to satisfy US capital requirements, all existing investors would have had to increase their US bond purchases by 200 in fiscal 2009. Foreigners, however, only increased their purchases by a mere 28 from September 2008 to July 2009 - far short of what the US government required. The US taxpayer cant cover the difference either. According to recent estimates, tax revenue from all sources would have to increase by 61 in order to balance the 2010 fiscal budget. Given that State government income tax revenues were down 27.5 in the second quarter, the US government will be lucky just to maintain its current level of tax revenue, let alone increase it. The bottom line is that there is serious cause for concern here and dont be fooled into thinking this crisis will fix itself when (and if) the economy recovers. Just how bad is it. quot Sprott Asset Management Heres a simple overview of what is increasingly becoming the dominant method of offensive warfare in the 21st Century. Early applications of this methodology to modern conflict have been very successful. In short, its better to understand its dynamics than to assume it doesnt exist. There are two basic types of systems disruption: Social. Disruption of social networks. Division of the network into non-cooperative or openly antagonistic centers of gravity. Physical. The disruption of physical networks, particularly infrastructure. November 3, 2009 - In a year of job losses, foreclosures and bag lunches, Americans have spent record-breaking amounts of money on guns and ammunition. The most obvious sign of their demand: empty ammunition shelves. At points during the past year, bullets have been selling faster than factories could make them. Gun owners have bought about 12 billion rounds of ammunition in the past year, industry officials estimate. Thats up from 7 billion to 10 billion in a normal year. It has happened, oddly, at a time when the two concerns that usually make people buy guns and bullets crime and increased gun control seem less threatening than usual. The explanation for the run on bullets lies partly in economics: Once rounds were scarce, people hoarded them, which made them scarcer. But the rush for bullets, like this years increase in gun sales, also says something about how suspicious the two sides in the gun-control debate are of each other, even at a time when the issue is on Washingtons back burner. The run started, observers say, as people heeded warnings from the gun-rights lobby that a new Democratic administration would make bullets more expensive or harder to get. Now that the shortage is starting to ease, gun-control groups are voicing their own dark worries about stockpiled ammunition. In between, in the 12 months since last October, gun shops sold enough bullets to give every American 38 of them. All news outlets are describing the proposed facility as a quotcyber-securityquot center, but quotUtah news reports, based on federal budget documents, have described the center as a collection point for surveillance of domestic and international telecommunications. quot SALT LAKE CITY An intelligence official says the National Security Agency will build a secretive electronic data center at a National Guard camp in Utah. The deputy director for the Office of National Intelligence for Collection, Glenn Gaffney, says the data center will be dedicated to protecting the nation from cyber-attacks. But that may be only part of the data centers mission. Utah news reports, based on federal budget documents, have described the center as a collection point for surveillance of domestic and international telecommunications. Gaffney refused to say exactly what would go on at the data center. He was at the Utah Capitol on Friday along with Gov. Gary Herbert and Utahs congressional delegation to talk about the 1.6 billion project. Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater Infinitas The internet chapter of the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement, a secret copyright treaty whose text Obamas administration refused to disclose due to quotnational securityquot concerns, has leaked. Its bad. It says: That ISPs have to proactively police copyright on user-contributed material. This means that it will be impossible to run a service like Flickr or YouTube or Blogger, since hiring enough lawyers to ensure that the mountain of material uploaded every second isnt infringing will exceed any hope of profitability. That ISPs have to cut off the Internet access of accused copyright infringers or face liability. This means that your entire family could be denied to the internet -- and hence to civic participation, health information, education, communications, and their means of earning a living -- if one member is accused of copyright infringement, without access to a trial or counsel. That the whole world must adopt US-style quotnotice-and-takedownquot rules that require ISPs to remove any material that is accused -- again, without evidence or trial -- of infringing copyright. This has proved a disaster in the US and other countries, where it provides an easy means of censoring material, just by accusing it of infringing copyright. Mandatory prohibitions on breaking DRM, even if doing so for a lawful purpose (e. g. to make a work available to disabled people for archival preservation because you own the copyrighted work that is locked up with DRM) quotThe Americans should understand that their monopoly has ended, quot Gorbachev said earlier, speaking at the presentation of a book by US billionaire and former media mogul Ted Turner at his foundation in Moscow. quotBut that America is going to be a leader for a long time, that it is going to be very influential -- this is a fact, whether you like it or not. quot Gorbachev praised US President Barack Obama, who has sought to improve the United States image and repair US-Russian relations that were damaged under his predecessor George W. Bush. Comparing Obamas efforts with his own attempt to reform the Soviet Union in the 1980s -- which was called quotperestroikaquot, or quotrestructuringquot -- Gorbachev said that Obama faced the harder task. quotI do not envy Obama, because I think changing and restructuring America is not easier than changing the Soviet Union, quot Gorbachev said. quotI wish the Americans luck. I think the presidents steps need the support of the American people, quot he added. Gorbachev, a winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1990, also said he approved of Obamas unexpected Peace Prize victory last month, saying it could help push the United States towards greater multilateralism. Gorbachev criticised quotdividing linesquot that he said had reappeared in the world and called on the United States, Russia and Europe to cooperate in creating a quotfairerquot world order. quotThere should be no walls. Now, by the way, dividing lines are beginning to appear again. We need to live in peace in this house called Europe, with all its doors and windows, quot Gorbachev said. quotOnly in cooperation with Russia and the United States can Europe play its role in the global process of creating a new world order, quot he said, adding this had been a dream of his quotgood acquaintancequot the late pope John Paul II. Theres an interesting article in the current New York Review of books (predictably, a book review) detailing the history of the National Security Agency, that shadowy power-behind-the-power to which we surrender much of our privacy. That in itself is interesting, but I found the introduction a bit shocking: the NSA is constructing a datacenter in the Utah desert that they project will be storing yottabytes of surveillance data. And what is a yottabyte Im glad you asked. There are a thousand gigabytes in a terabyte, a thousand terabytes in a petabyte, a thousand petabytes in an exabyte, a thousand exabytes in a zettabyte, and a thousand zettabytes in a yottabyte. In other words, a yottabyte is 1,000,000,000,000,000GB. Are you paranoid yet Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater Infinitas Getting arrested for your DNA. Police officers are now routinely arresting people in order to add their DNA sample to the national police database, an inquiry will allege tomorrow. The review of the national DNA database by the governments human genetics commission also raises the possibility that the DNA profiles of three-quarters of young black males, aged 18 to 35, are now on the database. The human genetics commission report, Nothing to hide, nothing to fear. says the national DNA database for England and Wales is already the largest in the world, at 5 million profiles and growing, yet has no clear statutory basis or independent oversight. The highly critical report from the governments advisory body on the development of human genetics is published as the number of innocent people on the database is disclosed to be far higher than previously thought nearing 1 million. The commission says the policy of routinely adding the DNA profiles of all those arrested has led to a highly disproportionate impact on different ethnic groups and the stigmatisation of young black men, with the danger of their being seen as quotan alien wedge of criminalityquot. The crime and security bill published last week by the home secretary, Alan Johnson, proposes to keep DNA profiles of people arrested but not convicted of any offence on the database for six years. This follows a landmark European court judgment last December, ruling illegal the current blanket policy of indefinite retention of DNA profiles whether or not the person has been convicted of an offence. Last night I posted about a report indicating that the Obama administration had scrambled to find a reason to fire government inspector Gerald Walpin after theyd fired him for uncovering scandal and corruption involving Americorps and Obama supporter (and former NBA star) Kevin Johnson. Today comes more news about the uncovered scandal, including pay-offs with tax dollars to underage girls Johnson had either had sex with or had propositioned for sex. William S. Lind 23 November 2009 One of the ongoing themes of this column has been gangs and the role they play in a Fourth Generation world. Here in the United States they already serve as an alternative primary loyalty (alternative to the state) for many urban young men. Gangs will likely be a major player in 4GW because gang members are expected to fight. Those who wont do not remain gang members. The November 15 Washington Post had a story about gangs in Salinas, California, that deserves close attention from 4GW theorists. Salinas is reportedly overrun with Hispanic gangs. The Post wrote that its homicide rate is three times that of Los Angeles. It quoted a Salinas police officer, Sgt. Mark Lazzarini, on one of the classic results of state breakdown, chaos: Only half of our gangs are structured the Norteos, he said. The southerners are completely unstructured. Half of our violence is kids who get into a car and go out and hunt. These kids dont know their victims. How do you stop that Its very chaotic. Salinass new slogan might be, Salinas: where even the lettuce has tattoos. But what is interesting in the Posts article is not the gangs themselves. It is a new response to the gangs. Salinas has brought in the U. S. military to apply counter-insurgency doctrine to a situation on American soil. The Post reports that: Since February combat veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan have been advising Salinas police on counterinsurgency doctrine, bringing lessons from the battlefield to the meanest streets in an American city Its a little laboratory, said retired Col. Hy Rothstein, the former Army career officer in Special Forces who heads the team of 15 faculty members and students (from the Naval Postgraduate School), mostly naval officers Rothsteinnotes the significant overlap with how you deal with insurgencies and how you deal with cities that are under siege from gangs. Leonard A. Ferrari, provost of the naval Postgraduate School, embraced the project from the start, hearingan opportunity for a school in transition from just a defense institution to a national homeland and even a human security institution. The idea was, not just Salinas, Ferrari said, but is there a national model for this From the perspective of 4GW theory, this is an important development. The Naval Postgraduate School is a DOD institution, part of the U. S. government. Its involvement in Salinas marks the federal governments formal recognition of Fourth Generation war on American soil, and the need for a national model to counteract it. If we must involve the U. S. military to lead counterinsurgency efforts in American cities, then it is difficult to deny that we face something like insurgencies in those same cities. Again, the significance is that this is now formally admitted by the U. S. government, not merely noted by outside the beltway observers of 4GW. The U. S. military officers advising Salinas on how to wage an anti-gang counterinsurgency are doing so as volunteers, according to the Post, to avoid Constitutional issues. But the camels nose is obviously inside the tent. Many wars have begun by sending volunteers. If, as likely, the volunteers prove insufficient, regular troops will follow. As someone who believes in a strictly limited federal government, the government envisioned by our Founders, I find this troubling. But from a 4GW perspective, I also know it is inevitable. AMPATUAN, Philippines The Philippine president placed two southern provinces under emergency rule Tuesday as security forces unearthed more bodies, pushing the death toll to 46 in some of the deadliest election violence in the nations history. Police and soldiers found 22 bodies in a hillside mass grave Tuesday, adding to the 24 bullet-riddled bodies recovered near the scene of Mondays massacre in Maguindanao province, said Chief Superintendent Josefino Cataluna of the Central Mindanao region. This southern region of the Philippines is wracked by violent political rivalries, in addition to a long-running Islamic insurgency, but the killings have shocked this Southeast Asian nation. One adviser to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has described the massacre as the worst in the countrys recent history. A media rights watchdog also says that it appears to be the worlds worst mass killing of journalists, with as many as 20 reportedly among the dead. Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater Infinitas NAFTA called for the operation of Mexican trucks in the United States, and the operation of U. S. trucks in Mexico. U. S. trucks generally refuse to enter Mexico because of the extreme danger to life and property. Now, Obama is dealing with Mexican president Calderon and promises to reinvigorate the Mexican truck program. As reported by Bloomberg, quotAround 4,500 Mexican trucking companies represented by the National Freight Transportation Chamber, known as Canacar, said in June they were seeking 6 billion in compensation from the U. S. because of the trucking conflict, alleging its northern neighbor wasnt complying with Nafta. quot The occasion of the meeting was an extension to the Security and Prosperity Partnership (SPP) started by George W. Bush in 2005. Obama is careful to avoid the SPP moniker. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper was also present at the talks. The three leaders also talked about the drug war and Swine flu, and how the three nations might coordinate efforts to combat both. Thus, it appears that the road map for the North American Community is still in play. At a covert forward operating base run by the US Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) in the Pakistani port city of Karachi, members of an elite division of Blackwater are at the center of a secret program in which they plan targeted assassinations of suspected Taliban and Al Qaeda operatives, quotsnatch and grabsquot of high-value targets and other sensitive action inside and outside Pakistan, an investigation by The Nation has found. The Blackwater operatives also assist in gathering intelligence and help direct a secret US military drone bombing campaign that runs parallel to the well-documented CIA predator strikes, according to a well-placed source within the US military intelligence apparatus. The source, who has worked on covert US military programs for years, including in Afghanistan and Pakistan, has direct knowledge of Blackwaters involvement. He spoke to The Nation on condition of anonymity because the program is classified. The source said that the program is so quotcompartmentalizedquot that senior figures within the Obama administration and the US military chain of command may not be aware of its existence. The White House did not return calls or email messages seeking comment for this story. Capt. John Kirby, the spokesperson for Adm. Michael Mullen, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told The Nation, quotWe do not discuss current operations one way or the other, regardless of their nature. quot A defense official, on background, specifically denied that Blackwater performs work on drone strikes or intelligence for JSOC in Pakistan. quotWe dont have any contracts to do that work for us. We dont contract that kind of work out, period, quot the official said. quotThere has not been, and is not now, contracts between JSOC and that organization for these types of services. quot The previously unreported program, the military intelligence source said, is distinct from the CIA assassination program that the agencys director, Leon Panetta, announced he had canceled in June 2009. quotThis is a parallel operation to the CIA, quot said the source. quotThey are two separate beasts. quot The program puts Blackwater at the epicenter of a US military operation within the borders of a nation against which the United States has not declared war--knowledge that could further strain the already tense relations between the United States and Pakistan. In 2006, the United States and Pakistan struck a deal that authorized JSOC to enter Pakistan to hunt Osama bin Laden with the understanding that Pakistan would deny it had given permission. Officially, the United States is not supposed to have any active military operations in the country. Blackwater, which recently changed its name to Xe Services and US Training Center, denies the company is operating in Pakistan. quotXe Services has only one employee in Pakistan performing construction oversight for the U. S. Government, quot Blackwater spokesperson Mark Corallo said in a statement to The Nation, adding that the company has quotno other operations of any kind in Pakistan. quot A former senior executive at Blackwater confirmed the military intelligence sources claim that the company is working in Pakistan for the CIA and JSOC, the premier counterterrorism and covert operations force within the military. He said that Blackwater is also working for the Pakistani government on a subcontract with an Islamabad-based security firm that puts US Blackwater operatives on the ground with Pakistani forces in counter-terrorism operations, including house raids and border interdictions, in the North-West Frontier Province and elsewhere in Pakistan. This arrangement, the former executive said, allows the Pakistani government to utilize former US Special Operations forces who now work for Blackwater while denying an official US military presence in the country. He also confirmed that Blackwater has a facility in Karachi and has personnel deployed elsewhere in Pakistan. The former executive spoke on condition of anonymity. His account and that of the military intelligence source were borne out by a US military source who has knowledge of Special Forces actions in Pakistan and Afghanistan. When asked about Blackwaters covert work for JSOC in Pakistan, this source, who also asked for anonymity, told The Nation, quotFrom my information that I have, that is absolutely correct, quot adding, quotTheres no question thats occurring. quot quotIt wouldnt surprise me because weve outsourced nearly everything, quot said Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, who served as Secretary of State Colin Powells chief of staff from 2002 to 2005, when told of Blackwaters role in Pakistan. Wilkerson said that during his time in the Bush administration, he saw the beginnings of Blackwaters involvement with the sensitive operations of the military and CIA. quotPart of this, of course, is an attempt to get around the constraints the Congress has placed on DoD. If you dont have sufficient soldiers to do it, you hire civilians to do it. I mean, its that simple. It would not surprise me. quot The Washington Post, in a cost-cutting move, is closing its last three domestic bureaus in the United States at the end of the year. everything is handled from the national desk anyways. quotBritish banks win stunning victory in landmark ruling on overdraft feesquot, says The Daily Telegraph, amongst the many media sources to comment on the ruling by our quotSupremequot Court. HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds are among seven lenders who had asked the Court to halt a challenge to their fees brought by the Office of Fair Trading, but there is more to the ruling than meets the eye. According to the judgement handed down, the issue depended quoton the correct interpretation (in its European context) and application of Regulation 6(2) of the Unfair Terms in Consumer Contracts Regulations 1999 SI 1999/2083.quot However, we then see that: quotThe 1999 Regulations were made under section 2(2) of the European Communities Act 1972 in order to transpose into national law Council Directive 93/13/EEC on unfair terms in consumer contracts. quot The quotvictory then, is one for EU law which completely goes against the grain of expectations. As for the quotSupremequot court, all it was doing was interpreting the diktats of our masters in Brussels. But, as always, in none of the MSM accounts does one see any reference to this. The Times rails that the quotdecision is bad for consumers and competitionquot but it does not tell us why it was made. The invisible quotelephant in the roomquot, as always, is positively thriving. A Christmas tree was put up in the Orange County (California) courthouse as the centerpiece for Operation Santa Claus, a charity that provides toys and gifts for disadvantaged children (and one I have worked with in the past). An intolerant, progressive busy-body was offended, complained and the tree was taken down. How is this possible, if there is no war on Christmas On Monday, the United States unsealed terrorism charges against eight defendants for supporting a Somali Islamist group called al-Shabaab. While few lay people in Canada or the United States have heard of al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda-connected extremist organization which controls a significant amount of territory in Somalia has recently become a particular concern for analysts examining possible homegrown terrorist flashpoints in North America. Beginning in late 2007, dozens of young men of Somali descent started disappearing from diaspora communities in the West. It turned out they were returning to Somalia to train in Shabaab camps or to take up arms against Shabaabs enemies within the country. Islamists of non-Somali descent were also travelling there to join Shabaab. This phenomenon has been repeating itself in a number of countries. Canadian government sources claim that 20 to 30 Canadians have joined Shabaab a development that public safety minister Peter Van Loan has said alarmed him. In the U. S. the disappearances have primarily clustered around Minneapolis-St. Paul, but there are credible reports of disappearances in other U. S. cities with large Somali populations as well. The Times of London reports that British security services believe dozens of Islamic extremists have returned to Britain from terror training camps in Somalia. SAPO, Swedens security service, believes that about 20 people have left that country to join Shabaab. And Australian authorities think as many as 40 Somali refugees may have gone from Australia to Somalia to liaise with Shabaab. Well get right to the point: garlic has outperformed gold and stocks in China, becoming the countrys best performing asset this year, according to a Reuters report. And no, the trigger has not been a sudden fear of vampire squids in China, but the idea the bulb could be used to ward off H1N1 flu, according to Morgan Stanley economists cited by the news wire. Bear with us because the story does get weirder. As Reuters reported: That chimes with some anecdotal evidence. The China Daily reported last week that a high school in Hangzhou, a prosperous city in eastern China, had bought 200 kg of garlic and forced students to eat it every day for lunch to stay healthy. I dont know about H1N1, but it can prevent ordinary colds, Zhang Ping, 74, told Reuters at a vegetable market in Beijing. Take me. Ive not had cold for many years and every year I buy several dozen pounds of garlic. Others have been looking for darker forces behind the surge. China Business News said coal mine bosses who are often depicted as being both extremely rich and nefarious speculators had been playing the garlic market, hoarding bulbs and hauling them between storehouses. Dark forces in the form of rich and nefarious coal-mining speculators (Sounds like - ahem - vampires to us.) Nevertheless, there is a serious note to all this garlic madness. Garlic has been the subject of one of the most fiercely contested Sino-American trade wars of recent times, with American farmers lobbying hard to implement tariffs against cheap Chinese exports to the country . To say China has a monopoly on the global garlic market, therefore, would not be understating matters. However, before readers (and the French particularly) begin to panic about an upcoming global garlic shortage, its worth highlighting that there are also some more mundane explanations for the recent price rally. As Reuters noted (our emphasis): In some parts of Shandong province, the wholesale price of garlic is up as much as 40-fold. Too much liquidity in any market can lead to speculation, analyst Jerry Lou said in a research note this week. The most recent evidence of asset speculation in Chinas commodity markets has been for garlic. But a more mundane factor may lie at the root of it all. Garlic prices were extremely low last year, convincing many farmers that it was not worth planting the crop again, a wholesale trader was quoted as saying in the Nanfang Daily. Supply could not keep up with a pick-up in demand from home and abroad, sending prices sky-high, the trader said. Yi Xianrong, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think-tank, said there was no need for panic. The garlic market is cyclical. Price rises are short-term and they will fall again before long, Yi told Reuters. quotI think eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end, quot Faber added. quotBefore that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to stimulusquot. In one of his Gloomiest predictions, Faber, referred to as Dr Doom, said quotthe average family will be hurt by that, and then in order to distract the attention of the people, the governments will go to warquot. quotPeople ask me against whom Well, they will invent an enemy, quot Faber said. quotAt some stage, somewhere in future, we will have a war - that you have to be prepared for. And during war times, commodities go up strongly, said Faber. quotIf you want to hedge against war, you dont want to own derivatives in UBS and AIG, but you have to own them physically, like farmland and agricultural commodities. That is something to consider for you as a personal safety and hedge. You have to own some commodities, quot he added. Discussion of Ideas From The Article Faber: There will be another war and it will be against an imaginary enemy Mish: I certainly agree the next war will be against an imaginary enemy. Nearly every war is against an imaginary enemy and/or of no vital interest of the US. WWI, Korea, Vietnam, and Gulf War II were all needless. WWII was a direct result of WWI. The quotWar on Terrorquot is preposterous. Terror is a method. Waging a war on a method against an enemy that has no real country is bound to fail and waste a lot of money in failure. As for where next, given Obamas sabre rattling against Pakistan, that is one place to keep an eye on. Iran is another. Faber: The SampP 500 and the Dow Jones will go down relative to gold. Mish: I concur. The question is in what way. The key word in the above sentence is quotrelativequot. Gold can easily stay flat, rise, or drop while the bottom falls out of the SampP. Faber: Eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end. Before that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to stimulus. Mish: The economy is not responding to stimulus right now, at least in any meaningful way. 100 of the GDP growth was directly related to government stimulus. The idea that government spending can start a genuine economic recovery is ridiculous. Nonetheless, government spending can start an artificial boom. The housing bubble is an example of an artificial boom. However, for a boom to start, individuals and businesses have to be willing to go along. That is the way it works in a credit based economy. Right now personal credit is contracting, credit card lending is falling, and businesses simply do not want to expand in the face of tax increases and high unemployment. Unless and until the Fed reignites another credit boom, high inflation is unlikely. The fear now should be more of what Congress does than what the Fed does. Yet it seems Congress is getting a bit leery over these huge deficits. Congress will spend of course, but will it be enough to matter much I doubt it, at least until we have more purging of consumer and corporate debt via bankruptcy. Faber: US government will increase its stimulus spending should the Standard amp Poors 500 Index fall toward 900. Mish: Agreed but it will not help for reasons stated above. Faber: The SampP will not drop below 800 or 900, and eventually will go higher in nominal terms, but not necessary in real terms. A correction is coming in the near term. Mish: I doubt the bottom is in, but it could be. If it is in, then I expect a retest closer to 700 than 900. It is conceivable the SampP drops to 500, which by the way I think is fair value. Japan had two lost decades and I expect the US will have them as well. Faber: The capitalistic system as we know it today will collapse. Mish: Agreed. The credit based fiat model of fractional reserve lending and fabrication of money out of thin air has reached its pinnacle. See Fiat World Mathematical Model for more details. Global wage arbitrage and outsourcing are icing on the cake. Mathematically it is impossible for the current Ponzi scheme of ever increasing levels of debt to survive. When and how it finally blows up is the only issue. Faber: Central banks will continue to print money at full speed, but long-term this strategy will lead to a fall in purchasing power and living standards, especially in developed countries. Mish: Agreed Faber: The years 2006 and 2007 were quotthe peak of prosperityquot and the world economy is not likely to return soon to that level. Mish: Agreed. I had quite some time ago proposed Peak Credit and her twin sister Peak Earnings have arrived. Here is a snip from the former. That final wave of consumer recklessness created the exact conditions required for its own destruction. The housing bubble orgy was the last hurrah. It is not coming back and there will be no bigger bubble to replace it. Consumers and banks have both been burnt, and attitudes have changed. Faber: The best way to deal with any economic problem is to let the market work it through. Mish: Agreed Faber: The way communism collapsed, capitalism will collapse. Mish: I disagree on a technicality. Capitalism will not collapse, because we are not practicing capitalism. Instead, we are practicing a perverse blend of corporate fascism, socialism, corruption, and padding of the pockets for and by those running the country. Yes, that will collapse. Faber: No decent citizen should trust the Federal Reserve for one second. Its very important that everyone own some gold because the government will make the dollar (in the long term) useless. quot Mish: No decent citizen should trust any central bank anywhere. The problems go far beyond the Fed and in the long run all fiat currencies are worthless. Fiat currencies do not float, instead they all sink at varying rates. I couldnt decide which story I liked better, so, how about both, starting with George W. Obama and landmines The Obama administration has decided not to sign an international convention banning land mines. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said Tuesday that the administration recently completed a review and decided not to change the Bush-era policy. We decided that our land mine policy remains in effect, he said. Hope Change Obama just cant be bothered with actually making policy decisions. As desperate Democratic lawmakers cast about for ways to create jobs from Capitol Hill, a 1970s-era jobs program is getting a fresh look. Known as CETA the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act the program provided direct government funding to hire temporary workers. At its peak in 1978, it had created 725,000 public service jobs and shaved roughly one point off the unemployment figure. Yeah, that should go over well. Of course, that is part of the plan, to have everyone working directly for and/or beholden to the federal government. Say, I wonder how well that worked out just a few short years later Government doesnt create wealth. They take it from the private industry. Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater Infinitas The Senate has just passed a 1.1 trillion omnibus spending measure, sending the bill to President Obama for a signature. The measure includes 447 billion in appropriations for a number of cabinet departments, as well as 650 billion for Medicare and Medicaid. The bill passed on a largely party line vote, 57-35. Three Democrats voted against the bill: Bayh (Ind.), McCaskill (Mo.) and Feingold. They were balanced out by the three Republicans who voted quotyesquot: Collins (Maine), Shelby (Ala.) and Cochran (Miss.) The House passed the omnibus bill last week. Republicans, especially John McCain, had decried the bill for containing 5,000 earmarks totalling almost 4 billion. Democrats pointed out that both parties had inserted pork projects. FORT JACKSON, S. C. Thousands of Army recruits in training must line up at least once more before heading home for the holidays, this time for mass inoculations by the hundreds against swine flu. The Armys largest training camp, just outside Columbia, S. C. and other posts are hurrying to finish the shots before the year-end break. More than 40,000 soldiers in advanced and basic training across the country head home over the next two weeks in a massive troop movement known as quotblock leave, quot Army officials said. quotWe have been very aggressive in trying to assure the safety of our soldiers, quot said Maj. Soo Hee Kim-Delio, the Army physician in charge of the inoculations at Fort Jackson. quotOur basic training population is at particularly high risk. quot This weekend Irelands largest public sector union has called the situation quotexplosivequot: Speaking today Peter McLoone, the general secretary of Impact and the chairman of the Public Services Committee of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions said that trust had effectively broken down between unions and the Government and that there was no basis that the parties would be able to go back into discussions in the short term. Mr McLoone told RTEs This Week programme that he could not rule out the possibility of all-out strikes as the reaction from members to the pay cuts was very strong. He also indicated that public sector workers would no longer be prepared to engage with the Government on reforms along the lines of those proposed in the talks on an alternative for reducing the public sector pay bill without cutting pay rates. And by the way, whats quotespecially dangerousquot mean Strikes Many government workers would do us all a favor if they went on strike. That would solve budget problems, you see - you dont pay people who dont work voluntarily, and a strike is voluntary To that I say: Go ahead and strike as it will HELP the budget situation. If this is a thinly-veiled threat of violence, well, were already seeing that in Greece. I guess we can add Ireland to the mix without too much trouble eh Or shall we talk about Italy, where it appears Berlusconi was punched - that is, literally assaulted: OME (AP) -- Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi was punched in the face at the end of a rally on Sunday by a man holding a small statue in his hand, leaving the 73-year-old media mogul with a bloodied mouth and looking stunned, police said. The 42-year-old man accused of attacking Berlusconi in Milan as he signed autographs was immediately taken into custody. How far are we away from boiled rope and lamp posts folks The problem here, like in New York and other US States, is that Ireland, like The United States, refuses to confess to the full extent of the economic damage - nor will they confess to the fact that it is not getting better at any material rate. Instead, we have the litany of quotpumpersquot and misleading (if not outright false) so-called quoteconomic indicatorsquot that are put forward with a smug smile, claiming that quotwe are out of recession. quot Then why is New Yorks financial situation so bad that Governor Paterson has felt the need to do this ALBANY - Gov. Paterson will announce Sunday that he is taking the dramatic step of unilaterally withholding 10 in scheduled payments this month to schools and local governments, including New York City, the Daily News has learned. quotHes basically paying out 90 cents on the dollar, quot one source said. This of course is going to provoke some pretty strong responses - including lawsuits. Not that it matters you cant get what doesnt exist, no matter how much you want to complain about it. This is not limited to New York and Ireland. Indeed, it is pretty much quotpick your statequot in the US, and among other nations, the list is long and distinguished - especially in Eastern Europe. The distortions that governments (and traders acting on the quotfree moneyquot paradigm) have applied to the markets in the last two years are unprecedented. Oil, for example, is trading around 70 - but why Cushing (the main oil terminal in the US) is full to overflowing, banks are literally parking tankers full of oil at anchor rather than selling it, and every place you can buy and cram a barrel, it has been bought and crammed. This has quotcreated demandquot for that oil, but since the oil has not been actually consumed it is false demand - and that supply must, at some point, go to the market. Kuwaits recent announcement that they may pull their deposited funds (custodial funds) from Citibank is more likely due to their governments knowledge of the book cooking (and oil demand cooking) and radical deterioration in their state finances. Eventually the piper must be paid, and these distortions will disappear. When they do, so will the oil price - and I suspect Kuwait knows this full well. Continuing our series of impending Commercial Real Estate debacles (click for part one), today we focus on CMBX 3 (H1 2007 transactions). As Fitch disclosed on Friday, the November delinquency rate across CMBS increased by 43 bps to 4.29, while more than double, 9.16 of the entire Fitch universe, was in special servicing. Of this CMBX 3 (together with 4) hold the brunt of the collapse in CRE. Of the 25 deals in CMBX 3, those performing the worst as of the latest remittance report were: COMM 06-C8, with 18.3 of all deals delinquent or in special servicing (680.4 million of 3.7 billion total) CSMC 07-C1, with 16.5 of all deals delinquent or in special servicing (552.3 million of 3.3 billion total) LBUBS 07-C1, with 15.6 of all deals delinquent or in special servicing(576.4 million of 3.7 billion total) And highlighted below are the properties most indicative of the CRE collapse within CMBX 3, and in CRE in general. Once again, this is merely a sample with many other properties already in foreclosure and/or delinquency. Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater Infinitas Continuing our series of impending Commercial Real Estate debacles (click for part one), today we focus on CMBX 3 (H1 2007 transactions). CMBX is the Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities Index which is covered or published by Markit here - markit/en/products/data/. rices. page Excerpt from above: It is simply an index that tracks performance of several baskets of bonds. The CMBX AAA index tracks the yield on a group of triple A bonds that are backed by real estate loans. To make things more confusing, the CMBX does not track the bond yields directly. The index is expressed as a spread. In this case this is the difference (spread) between the yield of the bonds being tracked and the current yield offered by government bonds (commonly called the risk-free rate). The result is that when the bond prices fall, the spread increases and the index goes up. A high index value means that the financial community sees these bonds as being at a higher risk of defaulting . At the Markit site linked above you can click on any of the rated (AAA, AA, A, BBB, etc) indices for a chart of the current spread. the higher it is the higher the risk (that is being factored into the price). So going back to early 2008 when I used to track these (also have several other indices - markit/en/products/data/. dices. page of which I mainly tracked the ABX index which is mainly credit default swaps on residential loans) on a daily basis. there were some massive jumps going into summer and my opinion at the time was that the risk showed up in the index spreads about two weeks before it got factored into the market prices (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, etc). As Fitch disclosed on Friday, the November delinquency rate across CMBS increased by 43 bps to 4.29, while more than double, 9.16 of the entire Fitch universe, was in special servicing. Average delinquency rate across the bonds went up by .43 percent or 43 basis points (bps) to 4.29. 9.16 of Fitchs entire holdings is in special servicing. excerpt from above: Following up on a post from a few days ago in which the general skyrocketing of delinquencies was observed, today I present an overview of some of the largest properties and loans that have recently been put into that very unenviable category of quotspecial servicing. quot According to Trepp, in April a record 4.4 billion in loans were transferred to special servicers, bringing the total to 23.8 billion. Transfers occur when master servicers hand off loans to special servicers once they notice signs of trouble. Special servicers then attempt to work out the problem with the borrower and return the loan to normal status or negotiate a payoff. If that approach fails, the loan is liquidated and the proceeds are forwarded to bondholders. Of this CMBX 3 (together with 4) hold the brunt of the collapse in CRE. Of the 25 deals in CMBX 3, those performing the worst as of the latest remittance report were: COMM 06-C8, with 18.3 of all deals delinquent or in special servicing (680.4 million of 3.7 billion total) CSMC 07-C1, with 16.5 of all deals delinquent or in special servicing (552.3 million of 3.3 billion total) LBUBS 07-C1, with 15.6 of all deals delinquent or in special servicing(576.4 million of 3.7 billion total) And highlighted below are the properties most indicative of the CRE collapse within CMBX 3, and in CRE in general. Once again, this is merely a sample with many other properties already in foreclosure and/or delinquency. CMBX series are grouped by offering dates. If you click that first link with CMBX and click any of the 3 series you can see the maturity dates are different. The higher the number the newer the offering. When you click on a series it will bring up the chart and you can select the Constituents Tab to see all the participants in that group. Basically to keep it all simple this is a way to track the risk in large groups of commercial real estate loans (big ). Tyler at Zero Hedge drilled down to some specific properties. Here is more detail from one of the sources Tyler used - Large loans (loans with balances over 100 million), continue to default each month with five more becoming newly delinquent in November. All except one of these larger loans had already transferred to special servicing due to imminent default. In fact, 18 of the 20 largest loans in the Index had transferred to special servicing prior to becoming 60 days delinquent. Of the 20 largest loans in the Index, 18 were transferred to special servicing on average 9.3 months prior to becoming 60 days delinquent, and ranged from one to 80 months prior to delinquency. Often, servicers are transferring loans before delinquency for imminent default when borrowers request payment relief notify the servicer of their inability to remain current, or when there are significant performance declines that indicate likely future delinquency. Delinquency rates for all major property types increased in November, and are as follows: The hotel sector had the highest increase month over month at 18 driven primarily by two newly delinquent hotel loans larger than 100 million. The hotel increase was followed by multifamily, with a 16.1 increase including two multifamily loans greater than 100 million. In each case these larger loans were already in special servicing at the time of default. Hotel delinquencies increased 627.9 million in November 2009, In addition to the over-100 million hotels, six newly delinquent hotel loans greater than 25 million also defaulted. The largest newly delinquent hotel loan was the 130.1 million DLJ West Coast Hotel Portfolio in ML-CFC 2007-9, which transferred to the special servicer in May 2009. Multifamily delinquencies increased 647.3 million in November. The largest was the 177.6 million CVI Multifamily Portfolio in CSMC 2007-C1. The loan transferred to the special servicer in April 2009. The four most-recent vintages represent over 75 of the current Index, in proportion to their overall percentage of Fitch rated CMBS. They have the following delinquency rates, (along with the percentage of the Delinquency Index versus the Fitch rated universe): --2005: 2.87 (11.26 vs. 16.8) --2006: 4.22 (23.5 vs. 23.88) --2007: 4.92 (38.61 vs. 33.6) --2008: 7.91 (1.71 vs. 0.93). During November, the dollar balance of loans in each property type increased. By property type, the dollar balance of delinquent loans is as follows: --Retail: 5.2 billion --Multifamily: 4.7 billion --Hotel: 4.1 billion --Office: 3.7 billion --Industrial: 769.6 million. Fitchs delinquency index includes 2,021 loans totaling 19.7 billion of the Fitch rated universe of approximately 42,000 loans comprising 460.5 billion that are at least 60 days delinquent or in foreclosure. The Index excludes Fitch-rated loans that are 30 to 59 days delinquent, which currently total 7.5 billion, an increase from 4.1 billion (in large part due to the classification of Extended Stay America Portfolio loan to 30 days delinquent) one month prior. highlights in bold but recap - 18 of the largest 20 loans in default, 4.1 billion increase in one month Big properties, big dollars, and rapidly going bust Hope thats been helpful Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater Infinitas Efforts are being made to force a new inquest into the death of former UN Iraq weapons inspector David Kelly. Six senior doctors have initiated a legal action calling for a new inquiry into Kellys death amid suspicion that he may have been murdered and did not commit suicide as originally claimed. Kelly was found dead near his Oxfordshire home in central England after he was exposed as the source of a controversial BBC report claiming that the British government exaggerated the threat posed by Saddam Hussein to justify the Iraq war. A subsequent inquiry ordered by former prime minister Tony Blair concluded that he killed himself by slitting his wrists after taking a cocktail of painkillers. However, a group of doctors, led by former assistant coroner Michael Powers, is convinced that the original verdict of suicide is unsound and should be overturned. From the evidence that we have as to the circumstances of his death, in particular the aspect of hemorrhage, we do not believe that there was sufficient evidence to prove beyond reasonable doubt that he killed himself, Powers said. Many government critics, including Liberal Democrat MP Norman Baker, who has written a book based on evidence he has compiled, claim Kelly was murdered. Last week, the U. S. Army released its suicide figures for November. Twelve soldiers on active duty were classified as potential suicides for the month, bringing the yearly suicide total to 147, 19 more than for all of 2008, and the fifth year in a row the rate has risen. In the same week, a Rand Corporation study was released which found, not surprisingly, that children in military families were more likely to report anxiety than children in the general population. The researchers also found that the longer a parent had been deployed in the previous three years, the more likely their children were to have difficulties in school and at home. In fact, you didnt have to look far that week to see signs of trouble in the military. Its true that Major Nadil Malik Hasan, the psychiatrist who murdered 12 military personnel and one civilian, while wounding 29, at Fort Hood, Texas, had at least briefly faded from the news. In Grant County, Oregon, however, a judge sentenced 27-year-old Jessie Bratcher, an Iraq veteran, to a state psychiatric hospital in a murder case in which he had shot an unarmed civilian during what was claimed to be a post-traumatic stress disorder-induced war flashback. Meanwhile, in Boise, Idaho, George Nickel Jr. another Iraq War veteran, armed with a handgun and wearing a tactical vest with as many as 90 rounds of ammunition, and accused of shooting into two locked apartments before getting into an armed confrontation with Boise police officers this summer, pleaded guilty to the unlawful discharge of a firearm into an occupied dwelling. Nickel, whose year in Iraq was spent disarming IEDs, suffered a broken leg and shrapnel in his face in a roadside bomb explosion that killed three Idaho soldiers. He is diagnosed with traumatic brain injury and post-traumatic stress disorder. He faces up to 15 years in prison. Last week, across the continent, 20-year old Joshua Hunter, a military policeman accused of stabbing his two Army buddies to death in the apartment they shared near Fort Drum in New York state, was arraigned on second-degree murder charges. All three men had served in Iraq. Hunters last message at MySpace included this: quotI will not be stopped until I get my revenge. quot According to the Associated Press, Hunters wife said that her husband was outgoing before he went to war, but when he returned stateside, he was an emotional wreck. He wasnt in any good mental shape at all I tried to get him to go to therapy. They prescribed him medicine and stuff, but it just wasnt enough. quot Unlike the week when Hasan struck at Ft. Hood and media attention was overwhelming, stories like these are small-scale and generally local in nature, yet they have now become a regular feature of the American landscape. Most of us may only half-notice, and yet something is happening here, even if we dont know what it is, Mr. Jones. Certainly, William Astore, a retired Lieutenant Colonel and TomDispatch regular, has a strong sense of where it may lead. Tom Theyre Wasted The Price of Pushing Our Troops Too Far By William Astore When I was on active duty in the military, an Army friend used to remind me: Any day youre not being shot at is a good Army day. Todays troops, especially if theyre boots on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan, dont have enough good Army days. Many of them are on their fourth or fifth deployments to a combat zone. Theyre stressed out and tired they miss their spouses and families. And often theyve seen things they wish theyd never seen. But youd hardly have known this listening to the debate over President Obamas decision to escalate yet again in Afghanistan. Its tone was remarkably antiseptic. I cant help recalling old wargames I played as a kid in which deploying infantry brigades to faraway places was as simple as picking up a few cardboard counters, tossing the dice, and pinning my troops to a new spot on the map. No gore splattered on my face when I rolled snake eyes after pushing my grunts too far into the Fulda Gap while playing MechWar 77. As we roll the dice again in Central Asia, its clear that were pushing our Army and Marines too far. Naturally, our troops, notably the brass, will deny this. For them, its Army Strong or Semper Fi only losers whine or bellyache. Well, we Americans need to recognize the limits on our troops, even if they refuse to do so. So let me be blunt: Were wearing them out. . Teuful Hunden - Saepius Exertus, Semper Fidelis, Frater InfinitasPreparing for the Collapse of the Petrodollar System Preparing for the Collapse of the Petrodollar System, Part 1 Recently, there have been many news headlines containing the words 8220Iran8221, 8220nuclear capability8221, 8220 Syria 8220, and 8220 Islamic State 8220. If you listen closely, you can almost hear the drumbeats of a fresh war in the Middle East. As an economist, I have been trained to view the world through the lens of incentives. (I am a quotbottom linequot kind of guy.) And just as every action is motivated by an underlying incentive, every decision has a related consequence. This brief article details the actions, incentives, and related consequences that the United States has created through its attempts to maintain global hegemony through something known as the petrodollar system . This article will begin with a look back at the important events of the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference . which firmly established the U. S. Dollar as the global reserve currency. Then we will examine the events that led up to the 1971 Nixon Shock when the United States abandoned the international gold standard . We will then consider what may be the most brilliant economic and geopolitical strategy devised in recent memory, the petrodollar system. Finally, we conclude by examining the latest challenges facing U. S. economic policy around the globe and how the petrodollar system influences our foreign policy efforts in oil-rich nations. The collapse of the petrodollar system, which I believe will occur sometime within this decade, will make the 1971 Nixon Shock look like a dress rehearsal. If you have never heard of the petrodollar system . it will not surprise me. It is certainly not a topic that makes it39s way out of Washington and Wall Street circles too often. The mainstream media rarely, if ever, discusses the inner workings of the petrodollar system and how it has motivated, and even guided, America39s foreign policy in the Middle East for the last several decades. Personal Note . What I am going to explain in this article is something that I believe is vitally important for every American to understand. Since 2006, I have written dozens of articles on the petrodollar system . I have appeared on many major news media outlets talking about the petrodollar system. I even wrote a best-selling book entitled Bankruptcy of our Nation that spent an entire chapter exposing the petrodollar system. I have spoken about this topic all over the world. Suffice it to say, I believe that understanding the petrodollar system is very important to your financial well being. Encorajo-vos a imprimir este artigo e lê-lo com atenção. When you are finished with it, I encourage you to share it with your friends and neighbors. Share it on Facebook and Twitter. Help us get the word out so that the American public can stir from its slumber and begin preparing for what lies ahead. A Brief Overview of this Article Series on the Petrodollar System In the final days of World War II, 44 leaders from all of the Allied nations met in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire in an effort to create a new global economic order. With much of the global economy decimated by the war, the United States emerged as the world39s new economic leader. The relatively young and economically nimble U. S. served as a refreshing replacement to the globe39s former hegemon: a debt-ridden and war-torn Great Britain. In addition to introducing a number of global financial agencies, the historic meeting also created an international gold-backed monetary standard which relied heavily upon the U. S. Dollar. Initially, this dollar system worked well. However, by the 196039s, the weight of the system upon the United States became unbearable. On August 15, 1971 . President Richard M. Nixon shocked the global economy when he officially ended the international convertibility from U. S. dollars into gold, thereby bringing an official end to the Bretton Woods arrangement. Two years later, in an effort to maintain global demand for U. S. dollars, another system was created called the petrodollar system. In 1973 . a deal was struck between Saudi Arabia and the United States in which every barrel of oil purchased from the Saudis would be denominated in U. S. dollars. Under this new arrangement, any country that sought to purchase oil from Saudi Arabia would be required to first exchange their own national currency for U. S. dollars. In exchange for Saudi Arabia39s willingness to denominate their oil sales exclusively in U. S. dollars, the United States offered weapons and protection of their oil fields from neighboring nations, including Israel. By 1975 . all of the OPEC nations had agreed to price their own oil supplies exclusively in U. S. dollars in exchange for weapons and military protection. This petrodollar system, or more simply known as an quotoil for dollarsquot system, created an immediate artificial demand for U. S. dollars around the globe. And of course, as global oil demand increased, so did the demand for U. S. dollars. As the U. S. dollar continued to lose purchasing power, several oil-producing countries began to question the wisdom of accepting increasingly worthless paper currency for their oil supplies. Today, several countries have attempted to move away, or already have moved away, from the petrodollar system. Examples include Iran . Syria . Venezuela . and North Korea 8230 or the ldquoaxis of evil, rdquo if you prefer. ( What is happening in our world today makes a whole lot of sense if you simply read between the lines and ignore the ldquoofficialrdquo reasons that are given in the mainstream media .) Additionally, other nations are choosing to use their own currencies for oil like China, Russia, and India, among others. As more countries continue to move away from the petrodollar system which uses the U. S. dollar as payment for oil, we expect massive inflationary pressures to strike the U. S. economy. In this article, we will explain how this could be possible. The Coming Collapse of the Petrodollar System When historians write about the year 1944, it is often dominated with references to the tragedies and triumphs of World War II. And while 1944 was truly a pivotal year in one of history39s most devastating conflicts of all time, it was also a significant year for the international economic system. In July of that same year, the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference ( more commonly known as the Bretton Woods conference ) was held in the Mount Washington hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The historic gathering included 730 delegates from 44 Allied nations. The aim of the meeting was to regulate the war-torn international economic system. During the three-week conference, two new international bodies were established. In addition, the delegates introduced the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT, later known as the World Trade Organization, or WTO.) More importantly, for our purposes here, another development that emerged from the conference was a new fixed exchange rate regime with the U. S. Dollar playing a central role. In essence, all global currencies were pegged to the U. S. Dollar. At this point, an appropriate question to be asking yourself is: 3939 Why would all of the nations be willing to allow the value of their currencies to be dependent upon the U. S. Dollar quot The answer is quite simple. The U. S. Dollar would be pegged at a fixed rate to gold. This made the U. S. dollar completely convertible into gold at a fixed rate of 35 per ounce within the global economic community. This international convertibility into gold allayed concerns about the fixed rate regime and created a sense of financial security among nations in pegging their currency39s value to the dollar. After all, the Bretton Woods arrangement provided an escape hatch: if a particular nation no longer felt comfortable with the dollar, they could easily convert their dollars holdings into gold. This arrangement helped restore a much-needed stability in the financial system. But it also accomplished one other very important thing. The Bretton Woods agreement instantly created a strong global demand for U. S. dollars as the preferred medium of exchange. And along with this growing demand for U. S. Dollars came the need for8230 a larger supply of dollars. Now, before we continue this discussion, stop for a moment and ask yourself this question: Are there any obvious benefits from creating more dollars And if so, who benefits First, the creation of more dollars allows for the inflation of asset prices. In other words, more dollars in existence allows for a rise in overall prices. For example, imagine for a moment if the U. S. economy had a total money supply of only 1 million dollars. What if, in this imaginary economy, I attempted to sell you my home for 2 million dollars While you may like my home, and may even want to buy it, it would be physically impossible for you to do so. And it would be completely absurd for me to ask for 2 million because, in our imaginary economy, there is only 1 million in existence. So an increase in the overall money supply allows asset prices to rise. Mas isso não é tudo. The United States government benefits from a global demand for U. S. dollars. How It8217s because a global demand for dollars gives the Federal government a 8220permission slip8221 to print more. After all, we can8217t let our global friends down, can we If they quotneedquot dollars, then let39s print some more dollars for them. Is it a coincidence that printing dollars is the U. S. government39s preferred method of dealing with our nation39s economic problems Remember, Washington only has four basic ways to solve its economic problems : 1. Increase income by raising taxes on the citizens 2. Cut spending by reducing benefits 3. Borrow money through the issuance of government bonds Raising taxes and making meaningful spending cuts can be political suicide. Borrowing money is a politically convenient option, but you can only borrow so much. That leaves the final option of printing money. Printing money requires no immediate sacrifice and no spending cuts. It39s a perfect solution for a growing country that wants to avoid making any sacrifices. However, printing more money than is needed can lead to inflation. Therefore, if a country can somehow generate a global demand for its currency, it has a quotpermission slipquot to print more money. Understanding this quotpermission slipquot concept will be important as we continue. Finally, the primary beneficiary of an increased global demand for the U. S. Dollar is America39s central bank, the Federal Reserve . If this does not make immediate sense, then pull out a dollar bill from your wallet or purse and notice whose name is plastered right on the top of it. Have you ever asked yourself why the U. S. Dollar is called a Federal Reserve Note Once again, the answer is simple. The U. S. Dollar is issued and loaned to the United States government by the Federal Reserve. Because our dollars are loaned to our government by the Federal Reserve, which is a private central banking cartel, the dollars must be paid back. And not only must the dollars be paid back to the Federal Reserve. They must be paid back with interest And who sets the interest rate targets on the loaned dollars It8217s the Federal Reserve, of course. To put it simply, the Federal Reserve has a clear vested interest in maintaining a stable and growing global demand for U. S. Dollars because they create them and then earn profit from them with interest rates which they set themselves. What a great system the Federal Reserve has for itself. No wonder it hates oversight and intervention. No wonder the private banking cartel that runs the Federal Reserve despises all attempts to actually audit its books. In summary, the American consumer, the Federal government, and Federal Reserve all benefit to varying degrees from a global demand for U. S. Dollars. The Bretton Woods Breakdown: Vietnam, The Great Society, and Deficit Spending There is an old saying that goes, quotHe who holds the gold makes the rules. quot This statement has never been truer than in the case of America in the postndashWorld War II era. By the end of the war, nearly 80 percent of the worldrsquos gold was sitting in U. S. vaults, and the U. S. Dollar had officially become the worldrsquos undisputed reserve currency. As a result of the Bretton Woods arrangement, the dollar was considered to be 8220as safe as gold.8221 A study of the United States economy in the post-World War II era demonstrates that this was a time of dramatic economic growth and expansion. This era gave rise to the baby boomer generation. By the late 196039s, however, the American economy was under major pressure. Deficit spending in Washington was uncontrollable as President Lyndon B. Johnson began to realize his dream of a quotGreat Society. quot With the creation of Medicare and Medicaid, American citizens could now, for the first time, earn a living from their government . Meanwhile, an expensive and unpopular war in Vietnam funded by record deficit spending led some nations to question the economic underpinnings of America. After all, the entire global economic order had become dependent upon a sound U. S. economy. Countries like Japan, Germany, and France, while fully on the mend from the devastation of World War II, were still largely dependent upon a financially stable American economy to maintain their economic growth. By 1971, as America39s trade deficits increased and its domestic spending soared, the perceived economic stability of Washington was being publicly challenged by many nations around the globe. Foreign nations could sense the severe economic difficulties mounting in Washington as the United States was under financial pressure at home and abroad. According to most estimates, the Vietnam War had a price tag in excess of 200 billion. This mounting debt, plus other debts incurred through a series of poor fiscal and monetary policies, was highly problematic given America39s global monetary role. But it was not America8217s financial issues that most concerned the international economic community. Instead, it was the growing imbalance of U. S. gold reserves to debt levels that was most alarming. The United States had accumulated large amounts of new debt but did not have the money to pay for them. Making matters worse, U. S. gold reserves were at all-time lows as nation after nation began requesting gold in exchange for their dollar holdings. It was almost as if foreign nations could see the writing on the wall for the end of the Bretton Woods arrangement. As 1971 progressed, so did foreign demand for U. S. gold. Foreign central banks began cashing in their excess dollars in exchange for the safety of gold. As nations lined up to exchange their dollar holdings for Washington39s gold, the United States realized that the game was over. Clearly, America had never intended to be the globe39s gold warehouse. Instead, the convertibility of the dollar into gold was meant to generate a global trust in U. S. paper money . Simply knowing that the U. S. dollar could be converted into gold if necessary was good enough for some mdash but not for everyone. The nations which began to doubt Americarsquos ability to manage their own finances decided to opt for the recognized safety of gold. ( Historically, gold has been, and will likely remain, the beneficiary of poor fiscal and monetary policies, and 1971 was no different .) One would have expected that the large and growing demand by foreign nations for gold instead of dollars would have been a strong indicator to the United States to get its fiscal house in order. Instead, America did exactly the opposite. As Washington continued racking up enormous debts to fund its imperial pursuits and its over-consumption, foreign nations sped up their demand for more U. S. gold and fewer U. S. dollars. Washington was caught in its own trap and was required to supply real money (gold) in return for the inflows of their fake paper money (U. S. dollars) . They had been hamstrung by their own imperialistic policies . Soon the United States was bleeding gold. Washington knew that the system was no longer viable, and certainly not sustainable. But what could they do to stem the crisis There were only two options. The first option would require that Washington immediately reduce its massive spending and dramatically reduce its existing debts. This option could possibly restore confidence in the long-term viability of the U. S. economy. The second option would be to increase the dollar price of gold to accurately reflect the new economic realities. There was an inherent flaw in both of these options that made them unacceptable to the United States at the time8230 they both required fiscal restraint and economic responsibility. Then, as now, there was very little appetite for reducing consumption in the beleaguered name of ldquosacrificerdquo or ldquoresponsibility. rdquo Goodbye, Yellow Brick Road The Bretton Woods system created an international gold standard with the U. S. dollar as the ultimate beneficiary. But in an ironic twist of fate, the system that was designed to bring stability to a war-torn global economy was threatening to plunge the world back into financial chaos. The gold standard created by Bretton Woods simply could not bear the financial excesses, coupled with the imperialistic pursuits, of the American economic empire. On August 15, 1971 . under the leadership of President Richard M. Nixon, Washington chose to maintain its reckless consumption and debt patterns by detaching the U. S. Dollar from its convertibility into gold. By quotclosing the gold window, quot Nixon destroyed the final vestiges of the international gold standard. Nixonrsquos decision effectively ended the practice of exchanging dollars for gold, as directed under the Bretton Woods agreement. It was in this year, 1971, that the U. S. dollar officially abandoned the gold standard and was declared a purely quot fiat quot currency. ( A quotfiatquot currency is one that derives it value from its sponsoring government. It is a currency issued and accepted by decree .) Here39s a brief 2-minute excerpt of the actual televised speech delivered by President Nixon on August 15, 1971 in which he ended the U. S. Dollar39s convertibility into gold. As all other fiat empires before it, Washington had come to view gold as a constraint to their colossal spending urges. A gold standard, as provided by the Bretton Woods system, meant that America had to attempt to publicly demonstrate fiscal restraint by maintaining holistic economic balance. By ldquoclosing the gold window, rdquo Washington had affected not only American economic policy mdash it also affected global economic policy. Under the international gold standard of Bretton Woods, all currencies derived their value from the value of the dollar . And the dollar derived its value from the fixed price of its gold reserves . But when the dollarrsquos value was detached from gold, it became what economists call a ldquofloatingrdquo currency. ( By ldquofloating, rdquo it is meant that the currency is not attached, nor does it derive its value, from anything externally .) Put simply, a ldquofloatingrdquo currency is a currency that is not fixed in value. Like any commodity, the dollar could be affected by the market forces of supply and demand. When the dollar became a ldquofloatingrdquo currency, the rest of the worldrsquos currencies, which had been previously fixed to the dollar, suddenly became ldquofloatingrdquo currencies as well . ( Note . It did not take long for this new system of floating currencies with floating exchange rates to attract manipulation by speculators and hedge funds. Currency speculation is and remains, a threat to floating currencies. Proponents of a single global currency use the current manipulation of currency speculators to promote their agenda .) In this new era of floating currencies, the U. S. Federal Reserve . Americarsquos central bank, had finally freed itself from the constraint of a gold standard. Now, the U. S. dollar could be printed at will mdash without the fear of not having enough gold reserves to back up new currency production. And while this new-found monetary freedom would alleviate pressure on Americarsquos gold reserves, there were other concerns. One major concern that Washington had was regarding the potential shift in global demand for the U. S. dollar . With the dollar no longer convertible into gold, would demand for the dollar by foreign nations remain the same, or would it fall The second concern had to do with Americarsquos extravagant spending habits. Under the international gold standard of Bretton Woods, foreign nations gladly held U. S. debt securities, as they were denominated in gold-backed U. S. dollars. Would foreign nations still be eager to hold Americarsquos debts despite the fact that these debts were denominated in a fiat debt-based currency that was backed by nothing Like the Article Series Get the Book This petrodollar article series is an excerpt from Jerry Robinson8217s groundbreaking book, Bankruptcy of our Nation: Your Financial Survival Guide. Get it in paperback or on Kindle today here Ready to Read Part Two In part two of this four-part series, you will get an in-depth look at the solution that President Nixon and his Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, developed to prevent a continual decrease in global dollar demand. The ingenuity of this plan is breathtaking in scope. It is known as the Petrodollar system. Once you understand this ldquodollars for oilrdquo arrangement, I believe that it will provide you with a more accurate understanding of what motivates Americarsquos foreign policy. TAGS . the petrodollar system, petrodollars, bretton woods, nixon shock, dollar collapse